Masternode is up, everything OK - no payments.

pyc

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May 15, 2014
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As subject says, everything is ok, but there are no payments yet, and it's active about 24 hours with newest version now. I saw some people are pointing to transactions which are masternode payments few hours after payments started, but there are not any on my masternode.
elbzo . net / masternodes.html shows my node and everything is open and green and correct.

As far as I know masternode is not related to mining so I shouldn't be doing any mining for masternode to fully function, or am I wrong?
 

AjM

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Same here, 2 MN:s no payment, active and all green about 18 hours, v.10.11.4.
 

vertoe

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I have 20 masternodes and 8 still did not recieve any payouts. Others already got 3 payouts. It is random and will take some time until you see payouts.
Checkout my masternode thread in signature...
 

pyc

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May 15, 2014
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Guys you were right... it was luck I guess, everything is alright got my first DRK through MN
 

icewood

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Jun 19, 2014
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Hi guys,
I updated the MN to 10.11.5 but now the MN is in status "unlisted" at darkcoin.io??
I still got no payments, so...did i something wrong?
Everything was fine and green at elbzios tool till 10.11.4.

Does anyone know why the MN is unlisted at darkcoin.io?

Thanks in advance
 

icewood

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Jun 19, 2014
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ok, i got no payments since the masternode payments are online...but could it be because my mn is not listed on darkcoin.io since i updatet to 10.11.5 and generated a new private key?
 

pyc

New Member
May 15, 2014
24
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3
Hi guys,
I updated the MN to 10.11.5 but now the MN is in status "unlisted" at darkcoin.io??
I still got no payments, so...did i something wrong?
Everything was fine and green at elbzios tool till 10.11.4.

Does anyone know why the MN is unlisted at darkcoin.io?
Thanks in advance
Got the same problem with my other masternode (not the one from the first post which is functioning fully ok and is receiving payments. Still wonder if everything is alright. Anyways, where's that masternode listing on darkcoin.io, I can't find it...
 

franz2

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Jun 26, 2014
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There is a bad implementation for seclect payment masternodes. It's not really random.
some people get every day several payments. Other get nothing for many days...
My node for example is already for 4 days without any payment.

I watch some other nodes, they get up to 3 every day....
for example this one:
http://chainz.cryptoid.info/drk/address.dws?XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV.htm

the payments of all masternodes it's easy to watch here:
https://elbzo.net/masternodes.html

sorry I can not poste links...

Press on [2] of a masternode and you can see...

Edit by vertoe - added links.
 
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vertoe

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There is a bad implementation for seclect payment masternodes. It's not really random.
some people get every day several payments. Other get nothing for many days...
My node for example is already for 4 days without any payment.

I watch some other nodes, they get up to 3 every day....
for example this one:
http://chainz.cryptoid.info/drk/address.dws?XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV.htm

the payments of all masternodes it's easy to watch here:
https://elbzo.net/masternodes.html

sorry I can not poste links...

Press on [2] of a masternode and you can see...

Edit by vertoe - added links.
flare could you look into this? eduffield too.
I also had that feeling while running masternodes. Some of my nodes recieved 2-3 payments in a row. This might not be the optimal random.
 
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AjM

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I have one MN running now 7 days, only one payment and one missed payment.
Second MN running 7 days and have 6 payments and over 10 missed.
 

flare

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flare could you look into this? eduffield too.
I also had that feeling while running masternodes. Some of my nodes recieved 2-3 payments in a row. This might not be the optimal random.
I can have a look, although i need to say that i don't see a issue in the election code here (yet).

The problem is more that humans don't have a sense for what randomness is :) - even if franz2 waited for 4 days now, thats "only" 4x 576 = 2304 elections for a total of 500 nodes.

Evan wrote a small script to demonstrate how "weird" random distribution can look and 'feel':

Some masternode operators have been concerned about the lack of or over payment of specific nodes on the network so I wrote a script to show how a random system such as masternode payments will look over time.

If curious, here's the script I used to generate these numbers: http://pastebin.com/rUgV69Fr

----- ONE DAY OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
107 masternodes were paid 0 times
151 masternodes were paid 1 times
87 masternodes were paid 2 times
39 masternodes were paid 3 times
11 masternodes were paid 4 times
5 masternodes were paid 5 times
1 masternodes were paid 6 times
0 masternodes were paid 7+ times

----- THREE DAYS OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
7 masternodes were paid 0 times
31 masternodes were paid 1 times
71 masternodes were paid 2 times
75 masternodes were paid 3 times
73 masternodes were paid 4 times
62 masternodes were paid 5 times
49 masternodes were paid 6 times
16 masternodes were paid 7 times
10 masternodes were paid 8 times
5 masternodes were paid 9 times
0 masternodes were paid 10 times
2 masternodes were paid 11 times
0 masternodes were paid 12+ times

----- SEVEN DAYS OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
1 masternodes were paid 0 times
1 masternodes were paid 1 times
1 masternodes were paid 2 times
5 masternodes were paid 3 times
9 masternodes were paid 4 times
29 masternodes were paid 5 times
40 masternodes were paid 6 times
51 masternodes were paid 7 times
45 masternodes were paid 8 times
52 masternodes were paid 9 times
49 masternodes were paid 10 times
34 masternodes were paid 11 times
33 masternodes were paid 12 times
17 masternodes were paid 13 times
10 masternodes were paid 14 times
13 masternodes were paid 15 times
6 masternodes were paid 16 times
1 masternodes were paid 17 times
4 masternodes were paid 18 times
0 masternodes were paid 19+ times
[...]
So lets take the 3 days distribution as reference

Code:
----- THREE DAYS OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
7 masternodes were paid 0 times
31 masternodes were paid 1 times
71 masternodes were paid 2 times
75 masternodes were paid 3 times
73 masternodes were paid 4 times
62 masternodes were paid 5 times
49 masternodes were paid 6 times
16 masternodes were paid 7 times
10 masternodes were paid 8 times
5 masternodes were paid 9 times
0 masternodes were paid 10 times
2 masternodes were paid 11 times
0 masternodes were paid 12+ times
You see: 7 nodes received NO payments in three days, whereas 2 nodes received 11 payments in this demonstration. So what franz2 is experiencing is just - sorry to stress that - the usual distribution of randomness.

Remember: random distribution does not mean that all nodes will receive equal amount of payments - even in the long term. There will always be losers and winners, but the median over all nodes is as per now (576 block per day / no. of nodes) = 576 / 534 = 1.08 payments per nodes and day.

Nevertheless i will have a look at the numbers and have a look if the payouts pass a test of statistical randomness - or if the election is biased. Until proofed otherwise i doubt the latter :)

BTW: I am running 4 MNs, and after 7 days of uptime the distribution for me is

Code:
node 1: 11 blocks paid
node 2:  3 blocks paid
node 3:  8 blocks paid
node 4:  4 blocks paid
So my node 2 received NO payment for the first 4 days - but in the median i am even luckier as the median:

Let's assume
- 450 nodes in average
- 576x7 = 4032 blocks
- only 50% paid blocks due to bad actors

in the last 7 days. So expected median (over all nodes) is 0.64 blocks per node and day.
I received 26 blocks / 4 nodes / 7 days = 0.92 blocks per node and day. Lucky me :D
 
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fernando

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And you need to add to flare 's analysis that bad actors also alter the payment distribution. It would be something like a doble randomness that make extreme cases more extreme. I have a MN that has only been paid 50% of the times it should and another one at 80% payments. You can check how many non-payments you've had here:
http://drk.poolhash.org/masternode.html
 

franz2

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Jun 26, 2014
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finally I got a payment today, funny.
But on the long term it should be almost equal.
I would double check the random function...
It's very strange, that one special node (always the same) get every day several payments and other get nothing for days...
 

franz2

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Jun 26, 2014
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this guy is my example: XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV
Again 2 for todady....
 

Ryan Taylor

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I am a statistician and a rather decent one (working on Wall St for a hedge fund). I will take a look at the results and analyze them for randomness. Flare is right that we humans have an extremely poor sense of what randomness looks like. It is deeply engrained in human nature to look for patterns, even where there isn't one. Just looking through the list of nodes, again as a statistician, I don't see any patterns that should be of concern. However, give me until end of day today and I'll do a real analysis.

Just as an example, franz2 observed that he went two days without a payment. Even if 100% of all miners were making their payment (which they aren't) and assuming 500 nodes you should expect on average approximately one payout per day per node. The chances of going one day without a payment is about 32%. Your chances of two days with no payment is about 10%. So if that happens, it is hardly "proof" that there is a problem, because you would expect literally dozens of the 500+ nodes to not receive a single payment for two days. Now add to that fact that only about 50% of all blocks being generated are even paying, and the chances of going two days goes up significantly... 56% chance of going a day without a payment and 32% chance of going two days. So until enforcement hits, about 1/3 of us are going to wait two days or more between payments. Your chances of going an entire week? About 2%. So even a week, we should expect about 10 masternodes to not get a payment.

At the other end, franz2 pointed out that XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV got paid 17 times since the 26th of June. Even if you assume only 50% of blocks to have paid over that time, across 500 masternodes, you would actually expect to find several examples like this (assuming it is truly random).

Therefore, only by looking across the ENTIRE set of results can we draw any conclusions. Are there too many with 10+ payments, or too many with none for random probability to explain? Let me look into it and I'll get back to everyone.
 

Ryan Taylor

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Meantime, if this is an "issue" that is going to give masternode owners heartburn and mistrust for the system, maybe there is an easy fix to this. You could simply incorporate a "masternodedays" multiplier to the voting system similar to coindays in PoS coins. The longer you've gone without being selected, therefore, the more likely you are to be the next masternode. It would be something in between "random" and "taking turns" that would even out the payments to a given masternode without making the ranking predictable ahead of time.
 
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fernando

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Thats why i calculated blocks, not DRK payouts :)
Yes, but what I was trying to say is that bad actors do not happen at a regular 50% rate, they have their own distribution and that can accentuate extreme cases.
 
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Ryan Taylor

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OK, I just sat down and ran a quick and dirty analysis using some broad assumptions, and I can't find any evidence of anything outside the ordinary. In fact, it looks very similar to the way the math says it should look. My simplifying assumptions were that 1) there were 400 masternodes active from 6/26th to today, and 2) about 50% of blocks made a payment during that time.

Analysis of historical:
According to those assumptions, you would expect to see about 30 masternodes with 17 or more payments, so finding an example of a masternode with 17 payments was not unexpected. If you've been running a masternode since June 26th, the most likely outcome is about 11 payments. On the low end, I would be surprised to see an example of a node that had been running that whole time and received 0 or 1 payments, but even finding one example with only 2 payments would not be unexpected. As I scan through the MN's with uptime going back to the 26th, I'm not finding any examples of 0-1 payments. On the high end, I would not be at all worried unless you could find an example of a masternode with at least 26 payments (the probability of seeing one is less than 1%). Even then, if a lot of those payments came in the first few days (when the number of active MN was much lower than 400), it would require further analysis to confirm anything out of the ordinary (and I'd need to know exactly how many MN's were active at any one point in time to do this more accurately than my simplifying assumptions allow).

Going forward, what to expect?
Now that the number of masternodes has stabilized at around 520, here is what you can expect going forward:
Over the course of the next two weeks, assuming 520 masternodes and 50% blocks with MN payments, we should only be able to find one or two examples of masternodes that don't get paid at all during this time. If we see more than about 6 examples of masternodes that operate continuously during that time, are configured correctly, etc. that haven't been paid, then I would start to suspect that we have a problem. The chances of that happening are indeed low... less than 1% chance. Obviously, if the ratio of blocks getting paid rises higher than the current ~50%, we could start to draw conclusions sooner than two weeks from simply observing that there are some non-paid MNs. At the other extreme, now that we have lots of MNs operating, the chances of someone getting 18 or more payments over the next two weeks is very low and could also illustrate we have a problem. Again, this assumes 50% of blocks paying, so if that ratio starts to increase, even finding nodes with more than 18 payments could be likely (I'd need to rerun the analysis based on the actual observed ratio).

Once payments are enforced:
Once all payments are enforced, you really need to wait a week before drawing any conclusions. If we can find an example of a MN doesn't get paid once in over a week, that could illustrate a problem. But again, this assumes 100% of blocks include a MN payment, which isn't the case today.

Bottom line:
Observing 2 days, 4 days, or even 14 days of no payments on a single masternode is not unusual when we have ~520 operating and only 50% of blocks getting paid. Truly random selection will result in some examples of extreme results across a population of 500+ MNs on both the high end (e.g., 20+ payments) and the low end (0 payments to date). With more data we could draw stronger conclusions, but thus far, there is no evidence of anything unexpected given a random selection. In fact, it would be unusual and concerning if we didn't observe some examples of zero payments or 20+ payments given the short length of time payments have been operating.

I hope that gives everyone a bit of comfort. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a "masternodedays" or "masternodeblocks" concept similar to coindays. It would help prevent extremes and make things more fair over shorter periods. I don't know how difficult that would be to incorporate, but it could help ensure greater fairness in the distribution of profits without creating a risky situation in which the next node could be known in advance (like with a turn-taking arrangement).
 
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Ryan Taylor

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By the way, this appears to be the luckiest masternode so far...
XyRzfcdK94NmvYsRPQisNdjzpmuDstqooW
... and what do you know? It is sitting right at 26 payments! This is right at the "upper range" I predicted (though he got 4 payment on the 26th and 1 today... both days I excluded, but I was pretty close!).
 

flare

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flareThe question was rather what happens to votes for nodes that already got payed. Are they reset?
OK, now i got your question :)

Conceptually the vote system works the same as a dice throw, (currently a ~500-sided dice) with the payout not being immediately after the throw, but when the throw has been confirmed 5 times. This is different from a lottery where the balls are removed and first put back after 5 draws ("vote reset")

So, if a vote (dice throw) for a node is in the "confirmation queue" it is

a) not reset/deleted after a payout and
b) nodes which already got a vote are not removed from the candidate list and are available for further votes.

So there is nothing odd with a masternode being paid 2 or 3 times in a row. It maybe very unlikely (0.002^3 = 0.000000008 ==> 1:125,000,000) but not impossible :)

Hope this made it clearer :)

I hope that gives everyone a bit of comfort.
Thanks for this exhaustive analysis, good stuff! :) When it comes to questions re. the statistical details of Darkcoin in the future, i will refer to you.
 
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franz2

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I watched again. The adress got 3 payments yesterday again: XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV

Sorry people, I know it's possible to win 2 times in the lottery in a row but the possibility is very very little.

Until you found a better random function may you block new payments for nodes for 1/2 of average payment time after getting one and don't give them any votes. It's just an idea.

Hows it's going now, it's not fine.
 

Ryan Taylor

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I watched again. The adress got 3 payments yesterday again: XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV

Sorry people, I know it's possible to win 2 times in the lottery in a row but the possibility is very very little.

Until you found a better random function may you block new payments for nodes for 1/2 of average payment time after getting one and don't give them any votes. It's just an idea.

Hows it's going now, it's not fine.
Franz2, listen I understand that intuitively, it seems unusual that XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV should get paid so many times. But believe me, across 500 MNs, at least three MNs are bound to get that lucky over such a short period of time. Also, getting paid two blocks in a row shouldn't even be that unusual of an event. Consider this... if there were 500 MNs (about what we have), that means in about 1 of 500 blocks, the MN payee should be the SAME address twice in a row. Considering there are 576 blocks each day, that means someone getting paid two consecutive blocks in a row should be about a daily event. It is not evidence of unfairness.

And here's where I'll put my DRK where my mouth is and make things a little interesting / fun... I'll bet you - even money - any number of DRK you want up to 10 that XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV doesn't get paid over the 24 hour period from noon Monday EDT to noon Tuesday EDT (to give you a little time to reply). Gentlemen's honor (we could even get vertoe to serve as escrow if you don't trust me... I am pretty new to the forum). Keep in mind, MN payments are up to 58% of the time now over the last 24 hours, so your odds are better than when I did the analysis. If things stay the way they are, it's not a bad bet... I should win about 53% of the time. And if block MN payout % goes up even more, your odds improve. But if you believe you're right and there's a problem with the MN algo and therefore you think XrfFymhBuVrFhCcZZZ8PULhHeNf7iC9vXV is more likely to keep getting payments just because he's received them in the past, you should take the bet. Up for a little fun? :D

In all seriousness, this "fairness" thing will give people problems... even if it is fair, human tendency will be to look only at our own nodes and decide if it's fair based on something as inane as not getting paid for three consecutive days (which is going to happen a LOT). That's why people prefer mining in pools even though the expected payouts are actually slightly LOWER. Are we going to see MN pools develop? Probably. :eek:

... this is yet another reason I more and more think we need "BlocksSinceLastMNPayout" ratio multiplier incorporated into the MN selection algo that acts similar to "coindays" in PoS ensuring a more consistent payout frequency for each MN. You'd have few if any examples of payments to the same MN twice in a row and fewer examples of going days without a payout.
 
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darklord1981

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Check my MN, it's pitiful Xhr73BivcD2fEQ2KpBtYRW7PUs7QfreLYS
My MN got paid 3 times in 4 hours on the 2nd July! So far, been paid 8 times since 27 June, and missed out on 3.5 DRK in payments due to dodgy pools. Currently looking at 29% Annual ROI, with enforcement on, this ROI figure would be 44% which is nothing to sneeze at!