Masternode Payment Variance

[eduffield]

Some masternode operators have been concerned about the lack of or over payment of specific nodes on the network so I wrote a script to show how a random system such as masternode payments will look over time.

If curious, here's the script I used to generate these numbers: http://pastebin.com/rUgV69Fr

----- ONE DAY OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
107 masternodes were paid 0 times
151 masternodes were paid 1 times
87 masternodes were paid 2 times
39 masternodes were paid 3 times
11 masternodes were paid 4 times
5 masternodes were paid 5 times
1 masternodes were paid 6 times
0 masternodes were paid 7+ times

----- THREE DAYS OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
7 masternodes were paid 0 times
31 masternodes were paid 1 times
71 masternodes were paid 2 times
75 masternodes were paid 3 times
73 masternodes were paid 4 times
62 masternodes were paid 5 times
49 masternodes were paid 6 times
16 masternodes were paid 7 times
10 masternodes were paid 8 times
5 masternodes were paid 9 times
0 masternodes were paid 10 times
2 masternodes were paid 11 times
0 masternodes were paid 12+ times

----- SEVEN DAYS OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
1 masternodes were paid 0 times
1 masternodes were paid 1 times
1 masternodes were paid 2 times
5 masternodes were paid 3 times
9 masternodes were paid 4 times
29 masternodes were paid 5 times
40 masternodes were paid 6 times
51 masternodes were paid 7 times
45 masternodes were paid 8 times
52 masternodes were paid 9 times
49 masternodes were paid 10 times
34 masternodes were paid 11 times
33 masternodes were paid 12 times
17 masternodes were paid 13 times
10 masternodes were paid 14 times
13 masternodes were paid 15 times
6 masternodes were paid 16 times
1 masternodes were paid 17 times
4 masternodes were paid 18 times
0 masternodes were paid 19+ times

----- THIRTY DAYS OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
2 masternodes were paid 22 times
4 masternodes were paid 25 times
4 masternodes were paid 26 times
1 masternodes were paid 27 times
6 masternodes were paid 28 times
6 masternodes were paid 29 times
7 masternodes were paid 30 times
20 masternodes were paid 31 times
13 masternodes were paid 32 times
11 masternodes were paid 33 times
19 masternodes were paid 34 times
20 masternodes were paid 35 times
27 masternodes were paid 36 times
33 masternodes were paid 37 times
18 masternodes were paid 38 times
23 masternodes were paid 39 times
28 masternodes were paid 40 times
28 masternodes were paid 41 times
25 masternodes were paid 42 times
20 masternodes were paid 43 times
23 masternodes were paid 44 times
15 masternodes were paid 45 times
11 masternodes were paid 46 times
9 masternodes were paid 47 times
5 masternodes were paid 48 times
9 masternodes were paid 49 times
7 masternodes were paid 50 times
4 masternodes were paid 51 times
1 masternodes were paid 52 times
1 masternodes were paid 55 times
1 masternodes were paid 57 times


----- ONE YEAR OF MASTERNODE PAYMENTS ----
1 masternodes were paid 406 times
1 masternodes were paid 421 times
1 masternodes were paid 424 times
1 masternodes were paid 425 times
2 masternodes were paid 426 times
2 masternodes were paid 427 times
2 masternodes were paid 428 times
1 masternodes were paid 433 times
3 masternodes were paid 434 times
1 masternodes were paid 435 times
2 masternodes were paid 436 times
3 masternodes were paid 437 times
1 masternodes were paid 438 times
2 masternodes were paid 439 times
3 masternodes were paid 440 times
8 masternodes were paid 441 times
3 masternodes were paid 442 times
2 masternodes were paid 443 times
2 masternodes were paid 444 times
3 masternodes were paid 445 times
2 masternodes were paid 446 times
6 masternodes were paid 447 times
8 masternodes were paid 449 times
2 masternodes were paid 450 times
6 masternodes were paid 451 times
4 masternodes were paid 452 times
5 masternodes were paid 453 times
3 masternodes were paid 454 times
4 masternodes were paid 455 times
4 masternodes were paid 456 times
4 masternodes were paid 457 times
9 masternodes were paid 458 times
10 masternodes were paid 459 times
6 masternodes were paid 460 times
3 masternodes were paid 461 times
7 masternodes were paid 462 times
11 masternodes were paid 463 times
8 masternodes were paid 464 times
6 masternodes were paid 465 times
8 masternodes were paid 466 times
6 masternodes were paid 467 times
6 masternodes were paid 468 times
10 masternodes were paid 469 times
4 masternodes were paid 470 times
12 masternodes were paid 471 times
6 masternodes were paid 472 times
10 masternodes were paid 473 times
6 masternodes were paid 474 times
12 masternodes were paid 475 times
5 masternodes were paid 476 times
7 masternodes were paid 477 times
11 masternodes were paid 478 times
10 masternodes were paid 479 times
10 masternodes were paid 480 times
11 masternodes were paid 481 times
3 masternodes were paid 482 times
3 masternodes were paid 483 times
8 masternodes were paid 484 times
4 masternodes were paid 485 times
4 masternodes were paid 486 times
4 masternodes were paid 487 times
10 masternodes were paid 488 times
6 masternodes were paid 489 times
6 masternodes were paid 490 times
4 masternodes were paid 491 times
4 masternodes were paid 492 times
5 masternodes were paid 493 times
1 masternodes were paid 494 times
5 masternodes were paid 495 times
2 masternodes were paid 497 times
5 masternodes were paid 498 times
4 masternodes were paid 499 times
2 masternodes were paid 500 times
3 masternodes were paid 501 times
2 masternodes were paid 502 times
3 masternodes were paid 503 times
7 masternodes were paid 504 times
2 masternodes were paid 505 times
3 masternodes were paid 506 times
2 masternodes were paid 507 times
1 masternodes were paid 508 times
2 masternodes were paid 509 times
2 masternodes were paid 512 times
1 masternodes were paid 513 times
1 masternodes were paid 514 times
1 masternodes were paid 516 times
1 masternodes were paid 518 times
1 masternodes were paid 520 times
1 masternodes were paid 521 times
1 masternodes were paid 526 times
1 masternodes were paid 529 times

 

[yidakee]

Thats what happens when you spend too much time playing Watchdogs!! :tongue:

 

[flare]

+1 - that's applied mathematics

 

[innergy]

I think we should expect a "Standard deviation" form...

 

[Lzeppelin]

Man I hope I'm not that one node that doesn't get paid until over 7 days...I still have not gotten a payment

 

[Populandum]

This was really needed. Not everyone knows their probability&statistics

 

[vertoe]

This thread is so GAUSS!

 

[Populandum]

This thread is so GAUSS!

Gauss is(was?) awesome

 

[yidakee]

This thread is so GAUSS!

Gauss is(was?) awesome

Gauss who?... doesn't ring a bell ...

*facepalm*

 

[Populandum]

Gauss?... doesn't ring a bell ...

*facepalm*

I actually lol'ed, I think I might have a problem

 

[David]

Nearly 72 hours, still no payment. Am I really one of the seven MNs who isn't going to get paid in the first 3 days? The odds are close to one in a hundred...
I'm occasionally seeing this message pop up in my logs: "peer=xxx says we are misbehaving 20." What does that mean?

 

[TanteStefana]

I still want to be the guy that got paid 529 times!

David, I just looked at my debug logs and I have a bunch of those as well. I haven't seen a payment in about 30 hours either. But I don't know what to do, or if that comment matters.

If anyone knows, please speak up Thanks

 

[DrkMiner]

Address XwSPJo3v4253WqS7kRFm7Huo3gDojRWuev was paid 12 times!
How could it be?

 

[Darkuopm]

Everyone needs to keep in mind also that not all blocks are paying payments right now. only those mined by updated miners. So the chances of not getting paid increase as your masternode could have been chosen for one of the non paying blocks (AS I UNDERSTAND IT, someone correct me if I am wrong). These numbers from Evan assume all blocks paying out when in reality 128 blocks out of the lat 275 did not pay out. Blocks 93122 to 93397. That's 46.5 % not payed out. Essentially at least doubling your odds of not getting paid right away. So just make sure your node is active and wait. Eventually all blocks will pay and even then as Evan has pointed out is is a random system that levels out but will never be perfectly fair.

 

[David]

I still want to be the guy that got paid 529 times!

David, I just looked at my debug logs and I have a bunch of those as well. I haven't seen a payment in about 30 hours either. But I don't know what to do, or if that comment matters.

If anyone knows, please speak up Thanks

Stef, I'm glad to know you're getting that too and it's not an issue!

 

[AjM]

84 hours and 2 nodes, still nothing, nada, zero...:sad:

EDIT:
My 48 hours MN:s debug.logs have about 140 "peer=xx says we are misbehaving 20"
lines per MN log, if that make any difference for payments.

Version 10.11.5

 

[TanteStefana]

Address XwSPJo3v4253WqS7kRFm7Huo3gDojRWuev was paid 12 times!
How could it be?

It could be they were the first (only?) one "live" at the beginning?
Could be they're cheating? I wish I knew why my logs show mostly the same few peers keep saying I'm misbehaving? I'm too old to misbehave! Well.... maybe not, LOL.

Well, anyway, lucky dog he is! In the mean time, we just have to wait for our next instructions. It's hard to wait! LOL

 

[mrolabadola]

What I'm really interested in is that if you have gotten a good start of getting a lot of payments, will that continue or will it stay within the median of the general public. Is it possible to predict how the payments will continue to be overall good or overall bad for a certain node. I have one node with 0 payments and one with a lot, for instance. I find that very interesting

Not being very informed on the algorithm, could anyone point me in the direction for the actual code that do the randomisation of casting the votes for what node will be paid?
I also would say that the darkcoin dev team is doing a fantastic job and are truly pioneers in new technology for the crypto currency world.

Thanks

 

[DrkMiner]

What does misbehaving 20 mean in the logs?
I have it in MN that have not received payment yet.
Thanks!

 

[TanteStefana]

DrkMiner, do you have it in the logs of the masternodes you were paid in? I think it shows up everywhere and it doesn't matter (not enforced) and may be caused by others having outdated wallets. Version *.11.04 to version *.11.05 has only one comment from Evan that I could find, and he said "The network has been experiencing some odd banning behavior caused by bad masternode signatures. I removed the code that bans the other party when this happens will I'll find the underlying cause and fix it in RC4. Please update if you're experiencing any problems or run a masternode." I think that was the only thing different between v .04 and v .05

 

[DrkMiner]

DrkMiner, do you have it in the logs of the masternodes you were paid in? I think it shows up everywhere and it doesn't matter (not enforced) and may be caused by others having outdated wallets. Version *.11.04 to version *.11.05 has only one comment from Evan that I could find, and he said "The network has been experiencing some odd banning behavior caused by bad masternode signatures. I removed the code that bans the other party when this happens will I'll find the underlying cause and fix it in RC4. Please update if you're experiencing any problems or run a masternode." I think that was the only thing different between v .04 and v .05

I have 2 MN (both up from the first few min) one got paid twice , the other not yet.
misbehaving 20 is in both logs. So I'm not sure if its presence has to do with the node not being paid...

 

[jimbit]

I am running at about 35% of what is expected.. so it appears everything is working as expected.

 

[flare]

I am running at about 35% of what is expected.. so it appears everything is working as expected.

I am performing a bit better: I received a total of 16DRK of payouts from my 4 nodes during the last 78h - which is 92% of expected. But as you can see: variance is bitching on me too, i own one of the nodes not even paid once yet

sv01:   0
sv02:   9
sv03:   2
sv04:   5
=======
total: 16DRK / 78h

average: 1.23 DRK payout / day / node

expected: 1.33 DRK payout / day / node

 

[vertoe]

It could be they were the first (only?) one "live" at the beginning?
Could be they're cheating? I wish I knew why my logs show mostly the same few peers keep saying I'm misbehaving? I'm too old to misbehave! Well.... maybe not, LOL.

Well, anyway, lucky dog he is! In the mean time, we just have to wait for our next instructions. It's hard to wait! LOL

If you want to see some numbers, you can use my spreadsheet.

In the last 3 days 2 of 20 nodes did not recieve any payment while my best node recieved 9 payments. In total i recieved 58 payments which evens out to around 1 payment per node per day.

If you want to even out the odds, you should consider joining shared masternode hosting ^^

 

[thelonecrouton]

I'm sat at 2,4,0,7 for my four.

 

[yidakee]

My 3 MN's, exact same config, fired up virtually at the same time.

MN1

MN2

MN3

So thats... 8 payouts, 3 nodes, 3 days = 0,8888 drk/node/day
Pretty spot on! I was late for the party this time!
And lets not forget the "insta-noding" effect

 

[jimbit]

my latest payment is .5??


"address" : "XmeAwondd3qXGbXATqZwwGX9qYgG6sGT4j",
"category" : "immature",
"amount" : 0.50340000,

 

[DrkMiner]

my latest payment is .5??


"address" : "XmeAwondd3qXGbXATqZwwGX9qYgG6sGT4j",
"category" : "immature",
"amount" : 0.50340000,

Yes, Could be.
Some pool is still running an old wallet when master node payout was 10%. So its 0.5 DRK.

 

[vertoe]

my latest payment is .5??


"address" : "XmeAwondd3qXGbXATqZwwGX9qYgG6sGT4j",
"category" : "immature",
"amount" : 0.50340000,

Yes pools can decide how much they pay for the masternodes. 0.5 is 10%, this pool seems to use very old software.

This will stop as soon as we enable enforcement.

 

[David]

We're going on 96 hours now with no payments on my MN. I understand variance, but I'm beginning to lose faith here. Even under the most optimistic projections (500 nodes and only 50% paid blocks) we're looking at (1 - ((499/500)^(298*4))) = 91.96% chance of my node having been paid. <--This is actually overly "optimistic" since the first few days we were around 280, 350, and 420 MNs.

I show up on all the lists, including the all-important "darkcoind masternode list | GREP (IP)" (with a :1). I regenerated my masternodeprivkey about 24 hours in, so that's done. Still nothing.

I hope that in a few days devs will look at this and check for bugs as opposed to just saying "it's variance, don't worry about it." I mean, if it is broken by some chance, we need to get it fixed before shit goes "live" in enforcement mode.

I'm still waiting, trying to reserve judgement. Obviously I have great faith in the devs or I wouldn't be "all in" on DRK. Just want to make sure a) there is no problem and b) if there is a problem it gets fixed.