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Mish discusses Bitcoin vs Gold

DashDude

Active member
Mish (Mike Shedlock) is an influential blogger for investing topics that I typically agree with. However, he recently blogged about the Peter Schiff - Max Keiser bitcoin-gold debate here. He came down on the side of gold so I sent him an email to try to change his mind :)

I'll paste Mish's arguments and my responses in red below:


As noted in my clip, I think Schiff is on the right side of the debate. This is my take:

  1. Bitcoins are the new beaver pelts of monetary transactions. For thousands of years, when available by free choice, gold has always been the currency of demand. Things like salt, cigarettes, beaver pelts, and recently Bitcoin, come and go. It's true that gold has historically been the currency of choice. However, the internet changes everything! Fiat currencies are deeply flawed, but can be spent easily online. Gold is good money, but not practical to spend in the digital age. Cryptocurrencies offer the best of both worlds - a form of digital gold that is easier to hold, store, transport and spend - especially online.
  2. The scarcity of gold is real. The scarcity of Bitcoin is artificial. It depends on trust that a human-based promise to mine more coins will be limited. There are trade-offs with this argument. The gold holding argument requires an element of trust that it will not be confiscated by the government like the US did in 1933 and could well do again in a crisis. It is true that cryptocurrencies rely on an element of trust that the protocol will not be changed in a way that hurts the holders. However, this is not a very likely scenario since the people most able to make these changes are also typically invested most heavily in the currency. They are incentivized to act in the best interests of the currency and its users.

    Consider the currency DASH. It uses a Masternode governance system that requires staking 1,000 DASH (~$200,000 worth) to be able to vote on governance issues. This helps ensure that the currency is managed to maximize its utility & value. Inflating the cryptocurrency would destroy trust in it's value proposition so it would not be attempted. Finally, in the event that a cryptocurrency is poorly managed it is a competitive currency marketplace and one can simply switch to another that suits his needs better!
  3. In a currency crisis, liquidity crunch, or stock market collapse, where would you rather be? If you choose Bitcoin over gold, you are not thinking clearly. You are dreaming. In a serious currency crisis I think it is likely that both gold and cryptocurrencies would be targeted by an insolvent government. The difference is that it is much easier to keep one's cryptocurrency investment out of reach of a hostile government than it is to do the same with gold. For the record, I see advantages of both gold and cryptocurrencies and hold both.
  4. Blockchain does not scale. Imagine the entire history of every transaction of any size, any place in the world, recorded on a distributed network. Bitcoin is going through a big scaling debate currently, but others like DASH have already solved this problem. Please have a look at the DASH scaling roadmap which allows for "Visa level" scaling that is on chain and uses existing technology: https://medium.com/@eduffield222/how-to-enabling-on-chain-scaling-2ffab5997f8b .

    Other on chain scaling solutions include pruning, sharding and other compression techniques. Finally, second layer solutions are expected to develop which will also help solve the scaling problem. Banks could easily facilitate crypto payments on their own networks and only use the blockchain for settlement. 20 years ago it would have been difficult to imagine the internet being able to scale to the point where we could watch high definition movies in real time, yet here we are. This problem is solvable!
  5. Despite the hype, no one would use Bitcoin to buy a candy bar. or even a meal at McDonald’s. One might easily do that with Bitgold. Transaction costs are the difference. Here I agree with you. Bitcoin transactions are too expensive and take too long to confirm for retail transactions. Fortunately, other cryptocurrencies like DASH have solved this problem. Transactions cost only pennies and DASH InstantSend transactions confirm instantly!

    DASH Evolution due out in 2018 will make DASH as simple to use as Venmo, but with lower fees, no transaction censorship and a sound currency. Don't let Bitcoin flaws turn you away from all cryptocurrencies! Also remember that this is an emerging technology. The internet was difficult and expensive to use in 1992 as well, but is now ubiquitous.
  6. Absurd proclamations and theories about the value of Bitcoin are now commonplace. This is typical of any bubble. I think every truly revolutionary technology that ends up changing the world goes through a manic bubble phase. There have been internet stock bubbles, chemical stock bubbles and even railroad & canal stock bubbles in the 1800s! These were all revolutionary improvements to our quality of life and all went through investment manias. This represents a fault of humans as investors rather than a fault with the underlying technology. Investors need to use common sense!

I'll keep you posted if he responds. In the mean time @thedesertlynx or @mastermined feel free to use any (or none) of this to make a DFN article for wider reach if you wish.
 
Any of that from this vid?

If it is the guy's a dick, he might as well have stuck his fingers in his ears and gone "la la la" for all his counter-arguments where worth. I'd heard this guy was well respected but no idea why after seeing that, if you asked him why gold was stable for so long he wouldn't have a feckin' clue, "because it's gold" would be the best he could come up with.
 
Yes, Mish's blog post was discussing the debate you linked between Peter Schiff and Max Keiser. However, Mish presents his own arguments in the blog post. Mish is generally a thoughtful and respectful individual who argues based on reason which is why I took the time to respond to him. We'll see if it carries any weight.
 
Yes, Mish's blog post was discussing the debate you linked between Peter Schiff and Max Keiser. However, Mish presents his own arguments in the blog post. Mish is generally a thoughtful and respectful individual who argues based on reason which is why I took the time to respond to him. We'll see if it carries any weight.

Ahh, ok. Thanks, will have a read through it. Re-watching that now and he does make some good points at the beginning but his gold/crypto arguments... I'm surprised anyone used it for a rational article 'cos I didn't think it had much reason!

EDIT:
1: In a huge number of countries gold is available at intrinsic value and could easily be used instead of cash yet in most places it's used seldom or never, why is that? "Because they're legally required..." is no excuse, countless cash transactions have taxes that should be paid too.

2: Scarcity of gold is artificial, practically none of it is (or ever could be) in the hands of everyday people and I'd have very little faith in any official figures for tonnage above ground, that depends on several centuries of honest accounting and it's rarely in anyone's interest to accurately report those figures.

3: Depends entirely on the situation and personal circumstances. Only a very small percentage of the world would have enough savings for gold to be worth while, a good sized chunk of them would be better with silver or even copper and the ones who have most of the gold already would be better with Picassos (they'd be a hell of a lot more portable!)
If the situation didn't look like all-out anarchy then crypto would be a better choice for most, retail gold and silver stocks would quickly run out in a genuine crisis (paper gold... lololol) and if it does look like all-out anarchy then bullets, beans and motor fuel would be better choices.

4: Yup, he ain't got a clue either.

5: Doing it every day. Having to go through a middle man to do it most of the time but his fees are coming out of the vendors profits so he'll be cut out of the loop eventually. BitWhat? Was that an endorsement for gold IOUs??

6: Yeah, and no-one speculates on the price of gold...

EDIT2: Adding those to get the rant out of my system, those guys get my goat sometimes... Two altcoin pumpers pimping their wares and a third coming in to back one up, at least Max often had a tongue in cheek side to his and can put a good argument together :/ Good job on the replys, well put forward. Hope you get a dialogue going.
 
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1. Bitcoin Cash is proof (again) that the illusionary 21 mil cap means very little.
2. I'm tired of hearing the bitcoin-gold comparison. Diamonds would be a far better comparison; plentiful yet artificially regulated.
 
1. Bitcoin Cash is proof (again) that the illusionary 21 mil cap means very little.
2. I'm tired of hearing the bitcoin-gold comparison. Diamonds would be a far better comparison; plentiful yet artificially regulated.
I tire of the gold comparison, too. However, it's a comparison every smart noob needs to go through to be sold on crypto - I went through it for sure. As a "crypto ambassador" I to try to walk them through the gold argument patiently. To be honest, I'd rather deal with a serious gold discussion than your typical "moon kid" that buys crypto to make a quick buck without really understanding it. The people who understand the issues make better long-term converts.
 
I tire of the gold comparison, too. However, it's a comparison every smart noob needs to go through to be sold on crypto - I went through it for sure. As a "crypto ambassador" I to try to walk them through the gold argument patiently. To be honest, I'd rather deal with a serious gold discussion than your typical "moon kid" that buys crypto to make a quick buck without really understanding it. The people who understand the issues make better long-term converts.

Kind of agree but I think it's one worth bringing up regularly all the same, most folks don't even have the fundamentals of money these days and haven't a hope of understanding fiat without them, gold's a good place to start.
Gold as an economy though... folks hardly ever seem to understand why it's stood the test of time, the mechanisms that allowed it to do that, they simply think it did it because it was gold.
 
Update: So Mish did respond with some counterpoints. Won't get into all the details here, but suffice it to say his number #1 concern is still blockchain scaling. I referred him to the scaling paper twice, but can't tell if he took the time to read it. We'll have to leave him in the anti-crypto camp for now and keep working on him as we progress on Evolution and scaling. He'd be a great convert if we can bring him over in the future...
 
Good stuff. One thing I would add to counter peter's argument about btc going from $1000 to $200 is that silver went from $50 to $14 just a few years ago and has not recovered much since. Plus btc is not too many years old and this should be expected with its distribution at the time, which will only get better over time. Gold and silver have been around much longer and so that argument would seem to swing in btc/cryptos favor considering the timelines involved.
I hold both/all for different reasons.
 
I am very pleased to be here, Just joined here find such informative information related to Gold & Bitcoins.
 
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