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Discussion in 'Official Announcements' started by tungfa, Feb 27, 2019.
:facepalm I mixed up march and may. Time to get some sleep!
The way i see it once we reached 60% (only some 7% to go as we are currently at 53.3%), we then only need 1.25% or less.
As Darren showed we get between 3.8% and 4.5% per 24 hours, so we could still get those additional 7% and that 1.25% or less.
4553 active masternodes
March 4th 12:00 registered: 2291
March 5th 12:00 registered: 2507
24h registered: 4.74%
I'm not extrapolating these data. We're close to 60% and if the 24h rate falls below 0.63% that would be a condition for spork 15 activation.
The registration rate has been pretty constant at 200 / 24h (about 4%) for the last few days, except for some occasional spikes upwards. The rate would have to drastically go up so that we hit 80% total registration, or drop significantly so that we go under the 24h threshold. Both seem unlikely at this point
We dont need 80% total registration to have spork 15 activated. We need 60% total registration and 1.25% (or less) progress in the last 24 hours !!!
We are currently at 58.1% total registration (2702/4648*100).
Yes. My point was that the registration rate is stable at around 4%, which is above the 1.25% limit. Looking at the trend it looks unlikely that the rate should drop to below 1.25% before March 8.
I'm not worried about making it to the next budget cycle in the beginning of April. That's given. But it doesn't look to me like we'll make the March 8 deadline
Lets say that we reach 60% of total registration by tomorrow, all that matters then is getting enough progress in the last 24 hours to get spork 15 activation.
Lets say that we have 4% registration in the last 24 hours. This means we achieved the rate of 1,25% or less (we are even well above it) and spork 15 gets activated.
Thats how i see it. A higher registration in the last 24 hours (>1,25%), does not necessarily mean a higher (>60%) total registration is needed.
No, 4% is not less than 1.25%
Or have I completely misunderstood the rules?
Hopefully someone of the dev team can show us some clarity on that "registration percentage in the last 24 hours" criteria.
Specially when for example that percentage is higher then 1,25% in the last 24 hours, while having reached 60% total registration.
I want to make sure we are all at the same page on this.
From what I understand the logic behind the rules are that we allow a lower total percentage of activated nodes if the registration process slows down.
The one thing that seems contradicting is the last entry in the table "80% requires 3.75% or less in last 24h" and the comment "Once we reach 80%, we will automatically activate without regard to the percentage registered within the last 24 hours."
24 Hours rule is to make sure that everyone who wanted to register had a chance.
If 24h % is to high, spork 15 is delayed (people are registering MN so we wait for them)
If 24h % is low (<=1,25%) that means that not many more MNO want to register and spork 15 is activated.
If you want spork 15 activation than register ASAP. But don't do it on march 7 because it is going to rise the 24h % and may stop spork 15 from activation.
Still strange to see that we allow ourself to shoot ourself in the foot this way by allowing a higher 24h % to delay spork 15, when we already have a majority of total registration.
I'm all for fair treatment during updates but this is overpowering those masternodes that are late with updating.
Like was mentioned here before we are more likely to see a spike in registrations the last 24h than a sudden drop.
Yes, it's a bit strange that ppl that rush to register right before the deadline actually postpones the deadline by a month!
I would much rather have had DCG say that on March 8th, they will make a decision based upon the percentage of masternodes upgraded (must be at least 50%), and the rate of upgrades, and also taking into account how delaying the activation by a month could affect the project's critical path.
There was no reason to put it in stone. Transparency is good, but not when it ties your hands. Just make a decision on March 8 based upon all data.
DIP3 has only been active for a week. People do things like travel, and don't necessarily have access to their wallets at all times. I'm sure that everyone clamoring here wants the switch flipped because they've already had the chance to register, but that is bordering on a conflict of interest. I think 3rd parties observing these things would much rather see a fair mathematical algorithm followed, rather than a few people who potentially stand to make a lot of money "just making a decision". It's not fun to have to wait for your changes to deploy, but neither is losing the trust of the community.
This is not about a few people potentially stand to make a lot of money, this is about risking delayment in activating spork 15 by overcomplicating the conditions of activation of that spork
(specifically the registration in the last 24 hours condition).
Thats my opinion at least.
I get it; everyone wants the project to keep progressing and no one wants to add more time to this to delay it further. However, not being ready for Spork 15 by March 8 was always a possibility, and at this point it is the most likely scenario we are in. If DIP3 had activated a bit sooner this wouldn't be a big deal. We got very unlucky the with activation/voting schedule. Just because we got unlucky though doesn't mean we should neglect a large chunk of MN owners. During a normal update users have a much longer time to take action. This registration is a larger lift for users than a regular upgrade, and we've given them almost no time to do these changes. The fact that we're at 60% already is impressive, and I attribute that to the mad panic around this March 8th deadline and the misinformation that was spread about the payment queue.
I think the conditions for activation are spot on. The progress % can be seen as a pain right now when trying to get everyone registered within a few days, but longer upgrades/registrations will be able to be switched over at a much more reasonable time. This takes the subjective aspect away from devs and gives a trustworthy and quantifiable way to back up a decision. No one can be mad at math!
OK, so if we will not run SPORK 15 on 8 march i will vote against money for DASH core. ;P
I just hope this "registration in the last 24 hours" condition does not backfire again next month, which could happen if we get another rush of masternodes registering at the last day and we stay below 80%.
(thats what i mean with overcomplicating the conditions of activation, one delay i can live with, two delays would undermine the trust of the community).
I attribute it to several official requests to update as soon as possible.
Masternodes are a herd. A smart herd, but a herd nonetheless. DCG has got to lead the herd, not be led by them.
Also, it should be remembered that we are currently in 15th place on coinmarketcap.com. If we were in the top five, I would be a bit more relaxed about decisions potentially affecting the progress of the project.
March 6th 19:00 UTC
4636 active masternodes
March 5th 19:00 registered: 2541
March 6th 19:00 registered: 2745
24h Registered: 4.40%
Deterministic: 2775 (59.60%)
24h progress: +94 (2.02%)
S15: if 24h progress < 0.63%
Last registration: 6 min ago
Updated: 06:48:02 UTC
It's going to be close! If registrations stop now we'll be under 60% but still have time to sink below the 0.63% limit, though such a sudden stop is less likely.
Looks like we will inch over 60% and raise the threshold to 1.25%. Will the registration rate drop that low? Not impossible with a bit of luck. I wouldn't be surprised though if we see a slight spike the last 24h which will put us well above 1.25%. Let's see!
So we currently have two ways to get to activation of spork 15 :
* Total registration 55% & Registration in the last 24 hours 0,63% (we already have almost 60% Total registration but Registration in the last 24 hours needs to drop to 0,63%)
* Total registration 60% & Registration in the last 24 hours 1,25% (means we need a little more total registration as we are currently below 60% and we need Registration in the last 24 hours to drop to 1,25%)
Since activation of Spork 15 will most likely depend on the Registration in the last 24 hours, i'm wondering where you guys fetch that specific information from ?
So far i can gather its UTC time based and can be pulled either from a bot or calculated manually ?
Edit : i got the information through Telegram (https://t.me/dash_chat), pretty cool bot. The bot is pinned on top as Dash Bot, you can send the bot a message asking for an update by typing "/[email protected]".
This can be done privately (just between you and bot) or publicly. When using Telegram make sure to enable 2FA security.
I wonder at what time on March 8th the conditions will be evaluated.
From page 1, post 1 :
Condition for Spork 15 activation in play currently :
Total registration 60%
Registration in the last 24 hours 1.25%
Current Upgrade Status
Which means if 24h progress drops just a little bit more (from 1.83% to 1.25%), we have met the conditions for spork 15 activation.
Update : looks like 24H progress % has increased considerably today, which means we should start looking at the other conditions with higher percentages which are mentioned in the percentage table.
I reckon we have at least still 7 hours to go and if part of 8th of march is used to continue monitoring the situation, then we will have some additional time too.
The 24H progress % seems to form the key at this point to activating spork 15 .. or not.
Nah, the progress % is over 4% so we need 80% registration, which is very unlikely. Looks like we need to wait another month. Oh well!
MN 2991/4689 = 63,78%
24h 251/4689 = 5,35%
GAME OVER = not tomorrow
In my opinion 2/3 is enough even when you change a constitution.
I have seen a few update delays over the years with Dash, but this in my opinion would be the hardest delay to sell and also the hardest delay to defend.
A manual spork activation (basicly nothing more then a switch of a button) possibly getting delayed because of too much updating on the last day, while at the same time
having already a majority (63+ %) updated.
Sure i could live with having to wait another month (and pray that the 24H registration condition does not form a factor again), but at the same time it would undermine
my confidence in future Dash update cycles as it will introduce an element of uncertainty with future spork activations.
At this point i just pray for a miracle and hope this spork gets activated tomorrow somehow.
I would say that if DCG delays the spork activation, it's because v0.14 testing will take a whole month at least and it really won't affect the overall schedule. Or maybe it's because it's not fair to the hardware wallet people who are struggling to update. (One reason I hate hardware wallets BTW is for the very reason that they have the potential to cause deployment delays). Also I wonder if the Trust Protector voting deadline affects any of this.