Dash Price Discussion and Dash Shortterm/Longterm Price Trend Speculation

[qwizzie]

Please consider using this thread to discuss Dash price, speculate about Dash price trends short term and longterm through technical analyses and to vote on what you think the Dash price will be end of 2022. If there is enough interest i will make a new poll at the start of 2023 with new Dash price speculation options.

To kickstart things i will post three longterm (monthly) TA charts for both Bitcoin (as Bitcoin still has a dominant influence over altcoins) and Dash.
I will include price change from ATH price to (local) low, to get a sense of where we are or where we could be headed in this bear market. These price changes from ATH price to (local) lows were drawn on the fly and could be a bit imprecise, please keep that in mind.

BITCOIN

Current longterm price trend

As worst case scenerio i put a 78% drop from ATH for Bitcoin (I am feeling a bit bearish towards Bitcoin price development)
It will be interesting to see if Bitcoin price can manage to stay above $29,000 or falls below it for an extended period of time.

Price range for Bitcoin (shortterm & longterm)

DASH/USD

Current longterm price trend against USD

Price range for DASH/USD (shortterm & longterm)

DASH/BTC

Current longterm price trend against BTC

Price range for DASH/BTC (shortterm & longterm)

Source of all longterm charts and the shortterm/longterm price range : tradingview
Exchange for Bitcoin : Bitstamp
Exchange for Dash : Poloniex (please disregard volume on Poloniex, i use Poloniex for the historic price info as its one of the older exchanges where Dash is traded, but the trading of Dash these days mostly takes place on other exchanges)

 

[Dans]

If we think of the price as speculation on Dash's future performance, I think it should be higher than the current price.

We compare Dash to its direct competitors (BTC, LTC, BCH, BSV, Monero, Doge...) and there is a very large price differential, given better performance.

The only explanation is the one that a certain "toknormal" always insists on mining and the unproductiveness of the master nodes.

If we manage to force the Dash platform to demand Dash or the nodes themselves to put more resources into the network, it is very possible that Dash will become one of the best placed payment currencies.

Right now, if we only think about fast payment methods, and with the possibility of anonymity, Dash should be at the top, but nevertheless it is not.

It can only be explained that the mythical "HOLD" that applies to BTC, and other currencies, does not apply to Dash for reasons such as: forcing Dash to be sold at any price to cover a budget, forcing miners to sell Dash , and finally, master nodes bought at a very low price that do not care about selling Dash at any price since for them the return will always be a benefit.

If this equation is reversed (budget/mining/masternodes) have no doubt that Dash will fly.

Today, I consider that the market price is fair, since a lot of Dash is sold at almost 0 cost (budget and Masternodes), which irremediably lowers the price, without increasing demand for other reasons.

 

[qwizzie]

It can only be explained that the mythical "HOLD" that applies to BTC, and other currencies, does not apply to Dash for reasons such as: forcing Dash to be sold at any price to cover a budget, forcing miners to sell Dash , and finally, master nodes bought at a very low price that do not care about selling Dash at any price since for them the return will always be a benefit.

I guess it depends on how well Dash investors have prepared themselves for this bear market. If investors and miners have put in place fiat reserves (USD / EUR) then in theory they should have no problem to switch to a dash saving pattern, when Dash hits a low price and to switch to a dash spending pattern, when Dash hits a higher price.

Question remains : how prepared are people to this bear market ?

In the mean time this is as good a time as any to take a closer look at the price performance of not just Dash, but of altcoins in general. For that I will use a small personal selection of crypto coins, which i have monitored for some time now. Lets take a look at the percentage down from ATH and see which altcoins are currently pretty close in price performance as Dash :

Source : cryptorank.io

I think we are witnessing a cleansing of the Altcoins market. Altcoins that were doing much better in the recent past, are slowly getting dumped over time and are reaching the same kind of price performance as Dash and Bitcoin Cash have been enduring for awhile now (more then 90% down from ATH).

 

[Dans]

I believe that the market is certainly progressively eliminating everything that makes no sense in the long term.

I remember the time of the ".com" where hundreds of shares went to the market to seek financing for unrealistic and unrealistic goals.

The same thing happened here, smart contracts gave wings to thousands of projects that were only looking for quick returns without a solid project.


Then other projects were simply copies of others without several anything.


And finally we have legitimate projects that seek to solve or add value to the user/market

We have seen for years how fads moved the market above its fundamental values... there was a boom for privacy coins, then another for meme coins, another for smart contracts, DEFI, NFT...

Only what achieves these two things will be maintained over time:

1- Being necessary and demanded in some niche.

2-Get recurring funding to advance/improve/maintain.


If right now the crypto market started from scratch, Dash would have two important aspects to assess:

1-It has a functional product (it is listed on dozens of exchanges that give it liquidity, it is fast, cheap, and "private")

2-It gives the option of financing proposals that should add value to the network itself and to the currency.

For these two reasons alone, Dash should survive time.

Anyway, you have to learn from mistakes, and I understand what you say about selling when it is high or waiting when it is low.

When Dash was above $500 years ago, we all remember how high-handedly we gave Dash away in budgets to projects empty of content.

If at that time we had had the maturity to safeguard the funds to give real value to the network, now I have no doubt that we would be in the top 10. Worse, we prefer to finance airplanes, buses across the USA, marijuana distributors, Dash gifts over Venezuela... now we have a handful of good programmers doing good work, and that must have been the thing to do years ago.

Marketing-wise, we would have paid Mat Damon, Kim Kardashian, or Donald Trump himself to promote Dash, but we'd rather throw the possibility down the drain.

I sincerely believe that Dash will survive and appreciate in value, but I hope to see as the new platform a real utility, beyond just fast and cheap payment.

All the best

 

[xkcd]

We are half way through the year and likely saw the bottom for Dash already at $45, few people are in profit here, so I don't expect us to stay this low to the end of the year, IMO Dash will be back over $100 by the end of the year, about $150 or higher. That said, Bitcoin looks like it is walking on air and I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop down to $14k this would likely create selling pressure in Dash also, but if it does, I know I will be buying, so it won't stay low for long.

 

[GrandMasterDash]

For me, the market as a whole isn't that much different than when bitcoin was double the price, Though I can see there is some sorting of the wheat from the chaff. Dash these days is basically in the same ballpark as decred. Not much is going to change until enough of the old guard has left, and especially Joel and co whom has done an excellent job of sucking money from the treasury and under-performing the entire time.

By all accounts, by now bitcoin was going to be one million each, haha. And as time goes on I see that target dropping, first 500K and these days lucky to predict 100K. I think bitcoin will go up and take dash with it but I'm not expecting too much.

 

[xkcd]

Not much is going to change until enough of the old guard has left, and especially Joel and co whom has done an excellent job of sucking money from the treasury and under-performing the entire time.

 

[qwizzie]

Most altcoins have been either failing in price performance (take for example Bitcoin Cash, Neo, IOTA, Waves, Algorand, XRP and many more of the older cryptocoins) or have been experiencing severe delays with their software developments and software updates over the years (take for example Ethereum and its long history of software delayments with its move to Proof of Stake).

Yet looking at Dash i can't help but get the feeling that the Dash community seems overly focused on inward fighting, on creating unnecessary drama and seems very willing to demonize its own Dash community members and its own Dash development team. I find this an ugly side of Dash, that seems to appear when people lose confidence and seek a scapegoat, rather then look at their own investment decisions / strategy, their own lack of patience and neglecting to take into account the bigger picture, which is the state of the altcoins market in general (long brutal multi-year bear market affecting most altcoins) and the force behind it (Bitcoin).

Of course there are always people that just have a bone to pick with certain people or groups of people and will go after them no matter what.

Status update Bitcoin price and Dash price 26th of May, 2022 :

Source : Tradingview (Bitstamp, Poloniex, Poloniex, Kraken)

Looks like the DASH/BTC pairs are under pressure today.

 

[qwizzie]

Status update Bitcoin price and Dash price 27th of May, 2022 :

Source : Tradingview (Bitstamp, Poloniex, Poloniex, Kraken)

With Bitcoin price dropping below $29,000 the Altcoins (Dash included) are experiencing increased sell pressure, which explains this sea of red today :

Source : coins360

Looks like Bitcoin price is on its way to retest its local low of $ 25,338 and forcing the Altcoins prices down with it. Most likely Altcoins will retest their local lows as well now. Dash certainly seems to be doing just that.

Now the number one question remains, how low will Bitcoin price go ? Can it recover above $29,000 and give Altcoins some breathing space or will it just go lower from here ?

BTC-USD, Weekly Time Interval, Coinbase Pro

Source : cryptowat.ch

DASH-USDT, Weekly Time Interval, Binance

Source : cryptowat.ch

Looks like Bitcoin and Altcoins are moving downwards since yesterday, eventhough US stock market has been moving upwards. Here is a comparison, just keep in mind the US stock market opens later this day, while crypto prices are live 24 hours per day. But even yesterday the US stock market was in the positive (see below), while crypto was in the negative (see my previous post).

So i would say Bitcoin price is moving a little bit in a different direction, then the US stock market since yesterday. Lets see if this changes, when the US stock market opens later today. Just to see if there is a correlation between the two.

Update : the correlation between stocks and crypto seems to be getting weaker lately, see : https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-ether-crypto-prices-today-51653650811

 

[Dans]

Things are getting complicated to capture new higher prices while the master nodes continue to drop.

Let's think that right now we have the nodes that we had in 2016, with the difference that much more Dash has been mined, having today the amount of almost 11 million coins, of which as I write there are 4228000 held in master nodes, which It represents approximately 38%.

I remember times with the supply close to 50% held in master nodes.

The law of supply and demand shows us that taking the rest of the conditions ceteris paribus, an increase in supply with equal demand forces a reduction in prices to obtain the new equilibrium.

Anyway, we can see how not only the nodes have been reducing even with the increase of more Dash mined, we have daily transactions between 13K and 17K per day, which places us in numbers similar to 2019.

More coins, fewer nodes, fewer daily transactions... if I didn't know Dash and what it's capable of, I'd say that with these numbers before five years it will be a dead coin.

Our big problem since we talk about prices, was the time when coins like ETH, which we exceeded in price for a long time, or LTC, even BCH, created expectations that attracted much more people than Dash. Excluding ETH, which on its own merits generated an incredible demand to be able to use its chain. LTC, or BCH did not bring anything new to the table, same as Doge.

But we can see how many people preferred to use and hold them over Dash.

why?

Well, at that time, I am sure that our biggest problem was the price that we ourselves suppressed with the budget.


Let's think that it is not the same to sell 4625 Dash at $1000 than at $50. In the first case we need an offer of $4,625,000 and in the second case an offer of just over $231,000


do we understand this?

Let's imagine that the monthly budget is in dollars and not in Dash.

Let's set a fixed budget of $300,000 per month, regardless of what the price of Dash is. This way, with Dash at $1,000, you wouldn't easily drop the price by selling 4,625 Dash, as you would only have to sell 300 Dash. Dash will destroy itself whenever the price rises, reaching a point where it can never be breached.

Something that does not happen in LTC or BTC for example.

I am an economist and I think that anyone who knows how to do simple mathematics can understand what I mean. Dash's model is very good, but only if the demand increases in the same way as the price increase... something practically impossible. Which causes it to collapse every time the price rises above some limits.

Perhaps when there are a few thousand dashes left to mine, it is possible that the price will exceed limits if Dash still exists, but that will not happen for now.

All the best

 

[qwizzie]

I think Dash price performance has little to do with our masternode model / budget system / lack of marketing / lack of development / perceived lack of DCG leadership and more to do with how attention shifted after Altcoins Season 2017/2018 from Altcoins to Bitcoin (and its upcoming halving) and Ethereum / DeFi. Some altcoins were hit first and hard (Dash, Bitcoin Cash and a few other older cryptocoins), while other older Altcoins (Ethereum, Monero, and a lot of newer Altcoins competing with Ethereum) initially managed to retain some attention of investors, but by now ended up or are in the process of ending up in the exact same position as these older Altcoins (Dash, Bitcoin Cash and others).

At the end of the day the timing does not really matter, the price performance among many altcoins now shows a very similar pattern. Altcoins are increasingly getting dumped into the higher then 90% from ATH range. Dash could have had 100% of its blockrewards go to miners or have zero budget from the blockrewards and could still have ended up like Bitcoin Cash and other altcoins, with regards to its price performance.

It does not really matter if you have a marketcap of 3.3 Billion USD and a marketcap rank of 25 (Bitcoin Cash), when you have almost exactly the same price performance as much lower in marketcap and much higher in marketcap ranking Altcoins like Dash (80), EOS (50), IOTA (64), and NEO (70).

Marketcap, ranking, marketing, circulating supply, blockreward distribution, coin name familiarity, development progress, community involvement in my view don't weigh up to the actual price performance that investors and traders have to deal with on their investments and feel on a personal level. Which is why i mainly focus on price performance over a selected group of altcoins, to get a sense how my specific coin is performing against other altcoins. If it is performing pretty much the same as a lot of other altcoins, then i consider it part of a larger market move.

Also lets not forget most Dash miners need to sell their received part of the blockrewards to pay for their electricity usage and to financially break even on their purchased mining equipment, masternode owners really only need to pay for some relatively low hosting fee (and their initial 1000 Dash collateral) and often have the choice to either save up their masternode rewards or spend them. This lower Dash price also seems to attract investors interested in setting up a masternode, particularly over the last 7 days :

Personally i am in a Dash masternode rewards saving mode on my masternodes, with current low Dash price. And i am pretty sure i am not the only one.
But in the bigger picture it does not really matter, with the crypto market still so focused on Bitcoin.

In the mean time the cleansing of the Altcoins (specially those Altcoins that are still overpriced / overhyped) continues, with Bitcoin price now falling in the lower $28,000 range.

 

[qwizzie]

Status update Bitcoin price and Dash price 28th of May, 2022 :

Source : tradingview

Finally some green figures after these last two days of red, will it last though ? Stay tuned..

Dash upcoming annual blockreward reduction :

Source : https://www.nicehash.com/countdown

Dash reallocation split change (scheduled to take place every three months, untill may 2025) :

Source : https://www.dash.org/forum/threads/updated-mn-miner-reallocation-schedule.51453/

Will Dash upcoming annual blockreward reduction of -7.14% and today's scheduled reallocation split change between masternodes and miners, have an effect on the Dash price ? Time will tell...

It should at least reduce Dash current supply inflation percentage, specially after the upcoming annual blockreward reduction of 7.14% in 6 days.

Dash current annual supply inflation percentage, in comparison with Bitcoin and some other Altcoins :

Source : https://www.viewbase.com/inflation

 

[qwizzie]

Status update Bitcoin price and Dash price 30th of May, 2022 :

BTC-USD

Source : Tradingview

Looking at this longterm chart, i can't help but feel a last and final move down towards a lower $20,000 range or maybe even below $20,000 is still very much a possibility. This will most likely form a capitulation moment for miners, who will then need to shutdown their mining equipment and it will most likely cause people relatively new to the market and with weak hands to sell. So far i have not seen a Bitcoin price capitulation occur after Bitcoin price reached it ATH in November 2021. Interestingly both Bitcoin / Altcoins and the US stockmarket are currently (and i think also since yesterday) trading in the green.

DASH-USD

Source : Tradingview

Looking at the MACD and AO indicators, i suspect Dash price still needs a few more months to conclude its current longterm trend and start a new longterm trend (hopefully a new longterm upward trend).

DASH-BTC

Source : Tradingview

Looking at MACD and AO indicators there is a steady, but very slow move towards Dash price concluding its current longterm down trend and starting a new long term trend. Dash price does seem to take ages to conclude this current longterm trend against Bitcoin (specially looking at the AO indicator), but there are other Altcoins who are also struggling to reach positive momentum on the AO indicator (Monero for example).

 

[Dans]

How do you see it, mate?

50$

We have returned almost to the beginning, has all this waiting been worth something, or have we made the wrong boat?

All the best

 

[qwizzie]

How do you see it, mate?

50$

We have returned almost to the beginning, has all this waiting been worth something, or have we made the wrong boat?

All the best

I think Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to a capitulation event that will either bring it in the lower 20k range (20K-23k), or maybe even below that price range (15K to 20K).

Which unfortunetely means increased sell pressure on Altcoins prices for some time to come, at least untill Bitcoin price reaches a clear and very visible bottom, through capitulation.

I have my doubts if the Dash price bottom of $45 will hold, which was reached 9th of May, 2022. I suspect that the Dash price may end up revisiting an earlier price bottom, namely the $31 that it landed on 8th of March 2020. And possibly bounce from there. It does depend on how low Bitcoin drops and when attention will start flowing from Bitcoin to Altcoins.

One thing that is worth keeping an eye on is the number of active masternodes, if that keeps rising during this bear market it signals accummulation among Dash longterm investors.

 

[AgnewPickens]

Dash has seen MN count rise +27 over the last 3 days. Somebody is buying this price range.

 

[Dans]

I think Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to a capitulation event that will either bring it in the lower 20k range (20K-23k), or maybe even below that price range (15K to 20K).

Which unfortunetely means increased sell pressure on Altcoins prices for some time to come, at least untill Bitcoin price reaches a clear and very visible bottom, through capitulation.

I have my doubts if the Dash price bottom of $45 will hold, which was reached 9th of May, 2022. I suspect that the Dash price may end up revisiting an earlier price bottom, namely the $31 that it landed on 8th of March 2020. And possibly bounce from there. It does depend on how low Bitcoin drops and when attention will start flowing from Bitcoin to Altcoins.

One thing that is worth keeping an eye on is the number of active masternodes, if that keeps rising during this bear market it signals accummulation among Dash longterm investors.

In December 2019 Dash was trading at $45, also in March 2017 it was around that price. We are now in June 2022 and we have $45.

let's accept that there is more dash in the market and less masternodes than there were three or four years ago, and therefore more dash to capitalize and lower the price.

Well, it's just the price and a clear technical indicator.

But let's look at what Dash has done in five years.

Let's see, instant send, private send, chainslocks...

If I look at the fundamental side, it is normal that the technical aspect is painful.

In 2017 Ryan gave interviews talking about Dash being in the top 10, and that evolution would be a paradigm shift for Dash and cryptocurrency users.

Today, all of us who have been on the ship these years know that we have been deceived and almost scammed by DCG.

Leaving this topic aside, I appreciate your good face in bad weather. Dash is no longer worth speculating at these prices, and it almost doesn't matter if it goes to $30 or $60 if it comes from too high.

Imagine those who bought at $500 waiting for the early release of the dash platform and all the hype thrown from DCG over the years.

Or let's think of those who have entrusted their savings to create a master node such as yourself and many others, hoping for a humble annual return, which has become a constant bleeding.

BTC sets the pace, true, but BTC has dropped from 60K to less than 30K, while Dash has gone from almost $500 to less than $50, and that is our reality.

Projects without development have done much better, or others simply focused on privacy and nothing else, have far surpassed us.


I look forward, and I don't know if they'll keep kidding me that the Dash platform will soon be ready, and I'll write again in five years that we've been kidded again.

Whatever it is, luckily for me, I agreed to win or lose at Dash a long time ago, and no matter what happens, it won't affect me financially.

For the rest, expecting luck to help us is absurd. Never forget who brought us here.

Greetings and good health.

 

[qwizzie]

Here is a good summary of the cryptoscene status in general : https://decrypt.co/102719/bitcoin-falls-below-26k-as-entire-crypto-market-slides-further

The cleansing of the Altcoins market continues, with even Ethereum price tanking hard today. Bitcoin price dropped below $24,000 already, with no sign of a longterm price reversal in sight. Dash price taking a hit, like all the other Altcoins.

Latest overview of Bitcoin and a personal selection of Altcoins price changes, ranked on % down from ATH :

Latest overview of Bitcoin, Dash and US Stock market price changes (US stock market change is from friday, as stock market is still closed) :

Latest BTC/USD Chart (30d, Bitstamp)

Latest DASH/USD Chart (30d, Poloniex)

 

[Dans]

 

[qwizzie]

The Lord gives and the Lord takes away.
Job 1:21

Apparently the Lord took away 75 masternodes. I am not sure if the Lord actually sold those 75 masternodes on the open market (the Lord does not need money after all) or if he just took them down with one mighty wave of his hand.

In the mean time you can also check this site : https://mnowatch.org/dash-stats/
A site that does seem to paint a different picture, while using different numbers (4267 enabled masternodes versus 4198 active masternodes).

Now if i remember correctly mnowatch.org stated ''enabled masternodes'' includes masternodes with PoSe scores and PoSe bans and i suspect crowning stated ''number of active masternodes'' (see above picture) does not include masternodes with Pose scores or masternodes with PoSe bans. Which could mean that the -75 masternodes in above picture is related to either masternodes with PoSe scores or related to masternodes with a PoSe ban (and not on the MN payments-list anymore).

I suspect it is the last (related to not counting masternodes with PoSe bans).