{"id":15065,"date":"2017-12-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-12-21T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2019.dash.org\/2017\/12\/22\/the-ceo-of-dash-a-major-cryptocurrency-says-the-market-is-speculative-and-some-of-bitcoins-value-may-be-phantom\/"},"modified":"2021-09-18T11:38:40","modified_gmt":"2021-09-18T11:38:40","slug":"ceoofdash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dash.org\/news\/ceoofdash\/","title":{"rendered":"The CEO of Dash- a major cryptocurrency -says the market is speculative and some of Bitcoin\u2019s value may be \u2018phantom\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cryptocurrency activity shifted into overdrive in the second half of this year.<\/p>\n

The combined market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies has exploded, now exceeding $US600 billion, and exchanges are struggling to keep up with demand.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all taking place amid high volatility,\u00a0suspicions of market manipulation<\/a>, and warnings from central bankers about the speculative nature of the market. There\u2019s also questions as to how cryptocurrencies will deal with increased regulatory oversight as the market matures.<\/p>\n

We spoke to Ryan Taylor, the CEO of Dash Core, which is currently the eighth biggest cryptocurrency in the world by market capitalisation.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a quick summary of what he had to say on some key issues:<\/p>\n

\u2013 Speculation is still rampant as the new market seeks to determine value. Growth is unlikely to continue at its current rate unless the use-cases of cryptocurrency become more tangible.- To this point, cryptocurrencies have been used mainly to replace existing technologies, but the incremental value they can add lies in the creation of new payment methods.- Right now, it makes sense to value crypto assets based on fiat currency because the market still only makes up a tiny portion of the global financial system.- The Bitcoins owned by that network\u2019s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, have never moved. Taylor said that factoring in locked and missing coins means some of Bitcoin\u2019s market cap may be \u201cphantom\u201d.- Taylor expects the market for cryptocurrency exchanges to consolidate, and said large incumbent exchanges which already operate in regulated financial markets have a competitive advantage.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The full interview is below.<\/p>\n

Sam Jacobs: There\u2019s increasingly divergent views among finance professionals about where the market for cryptocurrency is headed. Given your involvement and belief in it, do you have a vision over the next 12-24 months as to where this new market goes?<\/p>\n

Ryan Taylor:\u00a0Given the current set of use cases, I think there\u2019s a chance the market could stagnate here. I don\u2019t see how it could keep growing as it has been.<\/p>\n

In many ways the speculations is warranted, because these currencies have incredible value in terms of solving real-world problems.<\/p>\n

But the real-world use needs to catch up with the speculation if the speculation is to continue holding.<\/p>\n

I think 2017 will be seen as the year that the market started looking past Bitcoin, to all these other tokens and assets out there to determine where value might lie.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think the market has figured that out yet \u2014 I think most of these projects are highly likely to fail.<\/p>\n

But it has started looking beyond Bitcoin and that mere fact is what will allow innovation to start to flourish and I think in 2018, you\u2019ll start to see some of the first practical real world uses of some of these tokens.<\/p>\n

So I\u2019m hopeful that the benefit is large enough, and the value to some of these use-cases that can be pursued, will quickly be able to justify the valuations \u2013 or at least close the gap between reality and speculation.<\/p>\n

[<\/p>\n

image: https:\/\/edge.alluremedia.com.au\/uploads\/businessinsider\/2017\/12\/Ryan-Taylor-1.jpg<\/p>\n

\"\"](https:\/\/edge.alluremedia.com.au\/uploads\/businessinsider\/2017\/12\/Ryan-Taylor-1.jpg)Dash CEO Ryan Taylor. Source: LinkedIn<\/p>\n

I think there is likely to be a correction at some point, because regardless \u2013 it\u2019s really tough to keep the speculation and real-world use in close proximity to each other, at such an early stage of the industry.<\/p>\n

So I do think there\u2019ll be corrections along the way but I also believe in the enormous potential that these technologies hold.<\/p>\n

The use cases haven\u2019t even begun to be explored for something that facilitates immutable transactions at near zero cost if you can scale it.<\/p>\n

At that point, money turns into flows. They\u2019re no longer monthly payments \u2013 you can pay for things as you use them. You can literally pay for a page as you scroll down it.<\/p>\n

You can even imagine your car could have cryptocurrency in it and pay a road tax to the city it\u2019s driving in based on the current congestion rate.<\/p>\n

You could buy a cell phone with cryptocurrency in it and it could negotiate one-minute contracts with a telecom provider \u2013 whoever you\u2019re in proximity to \u2013 and buy one minute of air time at a time in the very data stream that makes up your voice.<\/p>\n

Largely they\u2019ve been used up to this point to replace an international money transfer, or as a bank account.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re replacing existing things, but that\u2019s not where incremental value they can bring to the market lies.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: So the use-case of crypto isn\u2019t just to replace traditional fiat currency for buying goods and services. In effect it\u2019s aiming to create a new paradigm for monetary transactions?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0It\u2019s the same thing that happened with information, when the cost of information dropped to near zero and become instantaneous, you now get the news on your phone live as it occurs.<\/p>\n

You no longer tune into the evening news or buy your encyclopedia \u2013 information flows to and from you just as freely, and that\u2019s what will happen to the digitization of money. If you digitize money it can flow anywhere freely around the world.<\/p>\n

If you can imagine a world where money is in the background and you don\u2019t even notice it \u2013 as I said, scrolling down some online content and paying for it as you scroll.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Theoretically, say global central banks scaled a solution to digitise fiat currencies. And I could then transfer, say, AUD to the US instantly with low transaction fees. Conceptually, does that limit the use-case of cryptos, while maintaining a link to traditional fiat currencies?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Well that\u2019s a marriage of the two \u2013 it captures some of the benefit of cryptocurrencies, but not all of them.<\/p>\n

One major one is, given the choice between two digital currencies, one that can inflate into infinity in supply and the other that is capped at 18 million (the limit of Dash) which one would you choose? The one that devalues over time or the one that increases in value with the size of GDP?<\/p>\n

So I think there are advantages to digitizing money, but that\u2019s not the only application of cryptocurrencies that make them great.<\/p>\n

I think there\u2019s a real advantage there for digital currencies and the consensus around supply, that gives them better value than any fiat could even if it\u2019s digitized.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Just mainly based off their scarcity?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Yes, there\u2019s no scarcity behind the US dollar except to the extent that the government restrains itself. And history proves that when countries go into debt, that restraint quickly goes away.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: So the strength of the cryptography behind certain digital currencies, and the finite aspect, is part of the value proposition in your mind?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Oh, definitely. There\u2019s a clear and distinct advantage around the public utility model versus a centralised issuing authority.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Can you discuss the recent forks of the Bitcoin blockchain in that context? Because in a sense cryptocurrency forks reduce their scarcity \u2013 it seems like creating money out of thin air.<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Well, there could actually be value created in a fork. When Bitcoin Cash forked from Bitcoin, the effective capacity of the bitcoin network before and after the split significantly increased, and therefore the cost of transactions on both networks reduced. So that did introduce value into the market place.<\/p>\n

If that hadn\u2019t occurred, all of the transactions would have been forced to stay on the original Bitcoin network.<\/p>\n

If not, fees go up and where do those fees go? To miners, and in response they build more electricity and equipment to capture more of the market because its profitable. That is a complete waste it offers no value to the end user.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no benefit to having more hash power than Bitcoin already has. It doesn\u2019t become incrementally more secure, it\u2019s already incredibly secure as far as its hash rate is concerned.<\/p>\n

So in a sense you\u2019re right, there is value created out of thin air. But it\u2019s value is created from the incremental capacity.<\/p>\n

The issue is, Bitcoin cash can\u2019t scale to infinity either, so when that network fills up it will be split again, and again, and again. We\u2019ve already seen Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Diamond.<\/p>\n

So at what point is it actually eroding value? When people get confused, there\u2019ll be mistakes made where people send Bitcoin to the wrong address, the wrong chain. So there\u2019s problems with it, it\u2019s not an elegant solution. It\u2019s a solution being driven by this need for capacity, but it\u2019s not by design.<\/p>\n

So my conclusion is that ultimately one split might be beneficial \u2013 five splits, not so much \u2013 a better solution is needed than continuing to split that blockchain.<\/p>\n

Dash incentivizes the nodes so they can afford better hardware so we don\u2019t need to split the chain.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re conducting research with Arizona State University to determine what is the best route to scale these technologies to keep transaction costs low as a payment network.<\/p>\n

So I think that\u2019s the right solution, it\u2019s not to have reddit debates, get pissed off at each other and start new coins.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Right now if we talk about the value of Bitcoin or other cryptos, the figures are always derived from existing fiat currencies. In other words, fiat is still central to the valuation metric \u2013 will that change at some point?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Cryptocurrencies are tiny in comparison to the rest of the economy. The amount of economy that is running across crypto networks is still minuscule.<\/p>\n

So right now, it makes absolute sense to price these things in terms of fiat because fiat is more stable in terms of the value of real goods and services, and it\u2019s the majority of the world\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

But if more of that economy shifts over to cryptocurrencies, then at first the discussions will be around cryptocurrencies\u2019 rise against the dollar. But if they do end up performing the way that some people predict \u2013 I don\u2019t know if they will \u2014 but if they capture a huge portion of the economy, then eventually you\u2019ll be talking about the devaluation of the dollar against dash coin, for example.<\/p>\n

I think as the government measures this stuff, and measures the value of a dollar against a basket of goods and services, if you start to see deflation at the same time that you see enormous value increases of cryptocurrency \u2013 then I\u2019d say there\u2019s a responsible culprit.<\/p>\n

Right now, even if you counted 100% of Bitcoin\u2019s speculative value as economy-switching, it\u2019s still a drop in the bucket and wouldn\u2019t move the needle on any depreciation of the US dollar. But I think it\u2019s extremely hard to predict at this early stage.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: There seems to have been a move away from discussing Bitcoin as a means of exchange, the valuation argument has reverted to a store-of-value similar to gold. Dash is seen as more of a payments facilitator, so within that paradigm can you talk about the use-case for Bitcoin and Dash over the next couple of years?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Bitcoin\u2019s value proposition as far as a payment network goes has eroded as the network has run up against its capacity limitations.<\/p>\n

The resulting competition for that capacity has driven transaction fees to the point where at least small value transactions haven\u2019t been viable.<\/p>\n

What you\u2019re seeing right now is a reactive response from a lot of the companies that use bitcoin for small value or low-margin transactions beginning to migrate their business elsewhere.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s simply become economically unfeasible to run those type of transactions over the bitcoin network anymore.<\/p>\n

What we\u2019ve seen recently in Dash is that a lot of small-scale services like phone top-up services, POS retail, video game use cases, we\u2019re seeing a rapid migration and interest in a payments focused network like Dash.<\/p>\n

So we\u2019re rapidly integrating a number of new services basically as the bitcoin network is losing them, mainly over economics.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: And Dash has recently upgraded its transaction block size from 1 megabyte to 2 megabytes right?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0We recently went through a network upgrade and the max block size was increased from 1mb to 2mb.<\/p>\n

It went through several stages of approval. First of all most of the miners needed to upgrade their capability and then a certain numbers of blocks for a certain period of time had to be mined on that version network to lock in the rule. And then the rule took effect two weeks later.<\/p>\n

The other thing to note is we also have blocks 4 times as frequently \u2013 which effectively pushes us to 8 times the transaction capacity of Bitcoin. We\u2019re every 2.5 minutes roughly and Bitcoin is every 10 minutes.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: There\u2019s around 18 million dash coins on the network. How many have been mined?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0I think it\u2019s around 7.8 million.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: There\u2019s reports that around 1,000 bitcoin holders hold 40% of all Bitcoins mined. So in a way its decentralized, but it\u2019s also top-heavy. So I\u2019m wondering what the format is for Dash.<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Our top 100 wallets control about 15% of Dash coins.<\/p>\n

That declines over time \u2013 we have our master nodes and if those large holders owned master nodes they\u2019d get a payment, but that payment is only 45%. The other 45% goes to miners and 10% goes to a communal fund.<\/p>\n

So even if they\u2019re master node holders they continue to get diluted over time as a percentage of the total coins in circulation. These holders would have to keep buying in order to maintain their ownership of the Bitcoin network.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the case with Bitcoin as well, those early holders would have to keep buying in to maintain their share of the network. These networks are designed to dilute the people that get in early the most.<\/p>\n

I know there\u2019s some people who invested early in many of these networks and have done quite well, and if they\u2019re smart they should diversify.<\/p>\n

With the case of Bitcoin, there\u2019s certain wallets where it\u2019s unclear if they\u2019ll ever get cashed in. Satoshi Nakamoto\u2019s coins have never moved. So it\u2019s unclear if that person is still alive, and if they are, if they still have access to those coins. So in that sense, some of Bitcoin\u2019s market cap might be phantom.<\/p>\n

In the sense that, they\u2019re unlikely to ever be used. They\u2019re basically burned, for all practical purposes.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Most Bitcoin mining appears to be based in China, which has lower electricity costs. Do you know much about the physical location of Dash miners?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0I don\u2019t know the exact setup. I can tell you that we have significant mining operations in North America. We do have significant mining operations in China as well.<\/p>\n

At conferences I have a lot of these guys that mine come up to me and talk about what they\u2019re doing, so I have a sense that it\u2019s probably more dispersed than what you see with bitcoin.<\/p>\n

There are some differences with the Dash network as far as energy consumed. We are a lot smaller of a network so the value of coins being created is lower, therefore the amount going towards electricity is also lower. Secondly, only 45% of the block reward is kept by the miner, the other 55% goes somewhere else.<\/p>\n

So as the Dash network grows, the amount that goes towards mining is not 100% like it is with Bitcoin, which gives us some efficiency.<\/p>\n

And the third component is based on an Algorithm \u2013 X-11 \u2013 strings together 11 different algorithms, which makes the equipment run cooler because the calculations can\u2019t run as quickly.<\/p>\n

More of the 45% reward for miners goes to the improving the hardware itself, so it uses less relative elec.<\/p>\n

We also have a path towards what we call collateralised mining, which can reduce the incentive for miners to engage in an arms race, as they are with bitcoin. It\u2019s kind of technical, but basically we have a path and a roadmap to address this issue in the long run.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Cryptocurrency futures trading is underway on major exchanges. In addition to Bitcoin, do you see futures trading extending to other cryptocurrencies?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0We\u2019re beginning to see the first of the mainstream financial products that are derived from these cryptocurrencies, and I believe there\u2019s a use for them.<\/p>\n

This issue is the extreme volatility of the underlying assets makes the futures even more volatile.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m sure it will settle but there will be times when volatility spikes.<\/p>\n

Until market matures, probably much more useful as a hedge for people with exposure to bitcoin, and might want to short or want to invest in Bitcoin but don\u2019t want to own it.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see why not. Bitcoin is the largest, but at times they\u2019ve been less than half the market this year.<\/p>\n

Case could be made for Ethereum, I\u2019m sure there will be more. I hope that one day Dash starts to get integrated into financial systems as well.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: Cboe futures contracts are only going to be based on the Gemini exchange, owned and operated by the Winklevoss twins. Do you have any thoughts on a futures market that\u2019s based on one exchange in a relatively new market?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0On one hand, the argument to be made for using Gemini is, Cboe want to base their market on a highly regulated exchange. They don\u2019t want to be based on non-regulated or loosely regulated exchanges in other countries, in order to set that Bitcoin price.<\/p>\n

The argument against is, you\u2019re taking a relatively illiquid product, and by only considering the price on one exchange you\u2019re potentially exposing yourself to even less liquidity.<\/p>\n

As we\u2019ve seen, in the world of Bitcoin the price differential on different exchanges can be substantial. Gemini isn\u2019t always representative of the broader markets.<\/p>\n

So I know they have good intentions, but exposing themselves to a risk in the way they\u2019re pricing that product, that could be more manipulated on a single exchange and might result in liquidity issues.<\/p>\n

Over time, futures markets are likely to add other exchanges. There are others that are regulated extensively such as like Kraken and GDax would make good additions and I think regulators should move in that direction.<\/p>\n

Jacobs: You mentioned the large discrepancy in price between different exchanges. Are there some exchanges that you think will eventually take market share as the crypto market consolidates?<\/p>\n

Taylor:\u00a0Well, I\u2019m still uncertain as to whether cryptocurrency specific exchanges will remain the predominant players in this space.<\/p>\n

I think there\u2019s a huge opportunity for regulated exchanges that deal with ETFs and stocks to get into this.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve got expertise not only around the regulation, but around the technology to really scale this stuff and they already have the existing connections into the rest of the financial world<\/p>\n

So in many respects, it may be an easier lift for traditional exchanges to get into this category of asset and I think we\u2019re starting to see that with NASDAQ and Cboe.<\/p>\n

I think they\u2019re going to dip their toes in the water in 2017, and probably if it continues to expand, they\u2019ll expand their own separate services into 2018.<\/p>\n

If given a choice between being a customer of an exchange that only deals with crypto compared to crypto and other asset classes, I\u2019m not sure which model is likely to survive.<\/p>\n

I think the first question you have to ask is, who\u2019s gonna own this in the long run? And if it is cryptocurrency specific exchanges, then I think similar to the world of stock exchanges there\u2019s likely to be consolidation and only a handful of players that really matter.<\/p>\n

Because these are markets where liquidity is a distinct advantage, so I can\u2019t imagine that there\u2019ll continue to be these hundreds of currency exchanges across the globe.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot of financial incentive for both the buyers and the sellers to gravitate towards more liquidity.<\/p>\n

I think you\u2019ll see dramatic consolidation in the market over the coming years. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s happened yet because there isn\u2019t a lot of price competition right now. Most exchanges price the trades at about 20 basis points.<\/p>\n

But I\u2019m starting to see some more aggressive pricing structures where it\u2019s 20 basis points for the market takers and -15 basis points for the market makers.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen some other volume-based pricing models introduced into the market the last couple years.<\/p>\n

There will be downward pressure on margins and that will force the consolidation to take place, and as that happens the pressure on smaller players only goes up.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m sure there\u2019ll be room for smaller exchanges on local markets where regulation doesn\u2019t easily allow the flow of funds across borders. But I think they\u2019ll be the exception rather than the rule.
\nRead more at https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/dash-cryptocurrency-ceo-interview-2017-12#jBPS7xGM0p6qBcYr.99<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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