Understanding low price

acidburn

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May 26, 2014
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Hello,

I've just worked out the current value of dark and I can't believe the beating it's taken. I don't understand it either

1 drk current worth 0.0106 which is £3.98.

Why is it so low? We have MN payouts and I thought that might have been a price increase factor not a decrease. I know BTC has raised in value but I didn't think it would devalue the alts.

Any thoughts anyone? I really hope it gets has low has £1. That will give me a chance to own another MN!!
 

vertoe

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Well first of all, increasing bitcoin value always devalues altcoins. Darkcoin was a strong exception some weeks ago when all coins went down but DRK. I'm also hoping it will dip even further down to .008 or .006? Would be nice to get hands on an extra chunk of 10k DRK. The current price decrease is due to lack of news I guess. After two failed hardforks, which were big in the news, now we finally started the payouts and nobody noticed. But that's intentional and the low price only temporary. :)
 
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acidburn

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Thanks for the reply. My main concern is the cheap price + MN payouts = more Mn's. Much more = less profits since mining will decrease too.

If this occurs could it be the death of the coin?
 

fernando

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To the factors mentioned by vertoe you can add that the payments have only half started. They are not being enforced and there are bad actors in the network that are not paying. Also, there were some problems with the official pool and it is being closed. However all these things are temporal, enforcement will come with RC4 and the pool will be closed for good. Given time DRK should recover, but there are no warranties in this land :)

Regarding the equation you write about cheap DRK, MNs and miners... don't worry at all! Hashing power in the network is at all time high with payments half-working. And every time someone buys a darkcoin there is someone else selling it. If it goes down and many people sell, probably some MN owners will also sell, so it would not mean a big increase in MN number. If they don't sell, the amount of DRK locked in MNs will be really high and the free-DRK will be scarce and price will raise. And that will make payments and mining rewards more valuable... I see it as a win-win situation, but I'll admit I'm heavily biased :D:D:D:D
 

DrGil

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Jul 5, 2014
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This is from a blog I started throwing together the other day. It's basically my take on the recent drop in price post-RC3 rollout. Not enough likes on this account to post blog URL yet but hopefully I can get it out there soon.

(Starting from the hardfork/softfork that occurred around June 27th.)
At that time, the wallet was updated again (mostly for the purpose of adding another wave of masternodes as well as raising the masternode payout to 20%). If you use the previous hardfork (occurred in May) as a guide for what might likely happen to the price during this hardfork, you would assume that a flawless execution of the update should have pushed the price up (Successful Implementation should = confidence in buying market.....i.e. Willing to pay more). The new wave of masternodes have been successfully paying out for a few days now and for some reason......all these good signs for the coin have resulted in the lowest price drops we've seen for quite a while. This is the thing that has baffled me and caused me to basically glue myself to the forums until I can find some answers.

One possibility I've considered is the emergence of numerous other "anonymous" coins....although none of them seem to have the strong community backing that DarkCoin has produced. You have to remember, 480 masternodes are set up, at 1,000 DarkCoins per node. That's $10,000 at $10 a DarkCoin or $480,000 total. Now that we're in the $7 range.....masternode owner's are taking one hell of a hit on their investments, if you consider DarkCoin was around $17 not too long ago. These masternode owner's can't sell their 1,000 coins needed to make up the masternode like we can......although they make roughly 1.4 DarkCoins per day, per node.....which they can sell or do whatever with. My take on this......right after the May hardfork, investors saw that the first round of masternodes went out without a hitch......convincing some skeptics that had been holding out, to go ahead and buy enough DarkCoin to start their own masternode. Result, the price skyrocketed (we were seeing it around 0.024/BTC or roughly $17) as "investors" scrambled to buy their spot before the price of DarkCoin went any higher.

In my opinion, DarkCoin got overbought in May and the price had to trend down a little (just to make up for this investor speculation and sudden surge in buying). I think if there were investors out there.....they bought in during the first round of masternodes and that's why we didn't see such a surge when this second round was implemented. The developers are doing everything right......no major bumps in the road......everything that has been done with the coin has been right on par with DarkCoin's whitepapers. In my opinion, there is honestly no way Litecoin should be anywhere close to the price of DarkCoin (as it brings nothing new to the table from Bitcoin aside from a different script).

Now, in late July.....the last scheduled update to the wallet is going to roll out. When this happens, the developers are going to remove the 10 DRK minimum to use DarkSend feature. That basically means people will finally be able to send any amount of money (even very small amounts) anonymously.....the whole reason the coin was invented. To this point, DarkSend only works on transfers over $100+. The DarkMarkets (illegal Tor websites) like Silk Road couldn't accept a coin that forced vendors to sell their wares in quantities over $100 (and potentially more if the price went up). My prediction is that the DarkMarkets pick up DarkCoin shortly after the RC4 release (and it still may take a couple months--kinda why I say don't sell until August or September). If I'm right......DarkCoin could completely replace Bitcoin on the Darkweb, cementing it's place in the niche market it was created for.

I could sit here all day proposing price marks and speculating trends......but in the end......DarkCoin is really going to boil down to -- Will the DarkMarkets switch? The developers of DarkCoin also created the source code for DarkMarket.....now known as Open Bazzaar (a Silk Road that runs from an executable...there is no one, single server you can shut down to stop it). Every vendor on OpenBazzaar will be running, through Tor, their portion of the website. It's pretty apparent the developers of DarkCoin are no slouches....if they say they're going to make a Dark Market, it'll probably happen. They even stated that they think someone will probably do it before they can get to it (as much of the source code is already out there).
 
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MaxFangX

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This is from a blog I started throwing together the other day. It's basically my take on the recent drop in price post-RC3 rollout. Not enough likes on this account to post blog URL yet but hopefully I can get it out there soon.

(Starting from the hardfork/softfork that occurred around June 27th.)
At that time, the wallet was updated again (mostly for the purpose of adding another wave of masternodes as well as raising the masternode payout to 20%). If you use the previous hardfork (occurred in May) as a guide for what might likely happen to the price during this hardfork, you would assume that a flawless execution of the update should have pushed the price up (Successful Implementation should = confidence in buying market.....i.e. Willing to pay more). The new wave of masternodes have been successfully paying out for a few days now and for some reason......all these good signs for the coin have resulted in the lowest price drops we've seen for quite a while. This is the thing that has baffled me and caused me to basically glue myself to the forums until I can find some answers.

One possibility I've considered is the emergence of numerous other "anonymous" coins....although none of them seem to have the strong community backing that DarkCoin has produced. You have to remember, 480 masternodes are set up, at 1,000 DarkCoins per node. That's $10,000 at $10 a DarkCoin or $480,000 total. Now that we're in the $7 range.....masternode owner's are taking one hell of a hit on their investments, if you consider DarkCoin was around $17 not too long ago. These masternode owner's can't sell their 1,000 coins needed to make up the masternode like we can......although they make roughly 1.4 DarkCoins per day, per node.....which they can sell or do whatever with. My take on this......right after the May hardfork, investors saw that the first round of masternodes went out without a hitch......convincing some skeptics that had been holding out, to go ahead and buy enough DarkCoin to start their own masternode. Result, the price skyrocketed (we were seeing it around 0.024/BTC or roughly $17) as "investors" scrambled to buy their spot before the price of DarkCoin went any higher.

In my opinion, DarkCoin got overbought in May and the price had to trend down a little (just to make up for this investor speculation and sudden surge in buying). I think if there were investors out there.....they bought in during the first round of masternodes and that's why we didn't see such a surge when this second round was implemented. The developers are doing everything right......no major bumps in the road......everything that has been done with the coin has been right on par with DarkCoin's whitepapers. In my opinion, there is honestly no way Litecoin should be anywhere close to the price of DarkCoin (as it brings nothing new to the table from Bitcoin aside from a different script).

Now, in late July.....the last scheduled update to the wallet is going to roll out. When this happens, the developers are going to remove the 10 DRK minimum to use DarkSend feature. That basically means people will finally be able to send any amount of money (even very small amounts) anonymously.....the whole reason the coin was invented. To this point, DarkSend only works on transfers over $100+. The DarkMarkets (illegal Tor websites) like Silk Road couldn't accept a coin that forced vendors to sell their wares in quantities over $100 (and potentially more if the price went up). My prediction is that the DarkMarkets pick up DarkCoin shortly after the RC4 release (and it still may take a couple months--kinda why I say don't sell until August or September). If I'm right......DarkCoin could completely replace Bitcoin on the Darkweb, cementing it's place in the niche market it was created for.

I could sit here all day proposing price marks and speculating trends......but in the end......DarkCoin is really going to boil down to -- Will the DarkMarkets switch? The developers of DarkCoin also created the source code for DarkMarket.....now known as Open Bazzaar (a Silk Road that runs from an executable...there is no one, single server you can shut down to stop it). Every vendor on OpenBazzaar will be running, through Tor, their portion of the website. It's pretty apparent the developers of DarkCoin are no slouches....if they say they're going to make a Dark Market, it'll probably happen. They even stated that they think someone will probably do it before they can get to it (as much of the source code is already out there).
Here, take a like to post that link! I am curious to see your blog.

Nice speculation with the Masternode over-buying, etc. Reading through your post, you seem to put a lot of focus on the darknet and illegal activities through Tor. It is not Evan's intention to be developing a coin to be used for illegal activities, as he has specifically stated that he was putting some kind of statement upon opening the wallet to agree that it was not going to be used for illegal activities, but your argument that it fills this niche is well-reasoned, even if that wasn't the original intent. I'm going to play the devil's advocate here - illegal activities seem to be doing well enough with Bitcoin, and tracking payments is already hard enough, nor is there any software specialized to do so. What will compel the darknet to switch to Darkcoin when their current system seems to be working just fine and Bitcoin is more universally accepted?

I think as a community and as investors we cannot ignore the prospect of Darkcoin being widely used for illegal activities. That has real market value, and will boost Darkcoin prices drastically if it is adopted by the darknet. But then again, at what point does Darkcoin become too strongly associated with crime that it pushes away the institutional investors that we REALLY need to make DRK price jump?

All just food for thought, I'm interested in hearing some comments
 
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acidburn

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I have to disagree with DrGil too, I think if the coin is used for illegal purposes then it really does defeat itself...
 

derk

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Jun 4, 2014
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I think it is far more simple than all of the above.
The drop is the natural result of chart analysis by investors.
For 1 month between the end of May and the end of June a large triangle formed (check 3 day charts on Bitcoinwisdom).
As the triangle tapered out to the point it was a sign for the market to move either up or down. At this point I believe that going up would certainly have been possible, but reliant on perfectly functioning MN payments post-checkpointing, enforcing, etc., AND a marketing boost. Otherwise we had to move down.
When the time came several larger investors or holders (followed by a larger group of smaller investors or holders) chose to base their decision on the charts.
My 2 duffs.
 

acidburn

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Hmm. That makes more sense really! I guess it's going to be a long hard battle to get it back to the value it once was.
 

DrGil

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Right on. I appreciate hearing some opposition. It allows me to get this out on the table before anyone reading my blog or what I'm about to write, has a chance to take anything out of context. My rationalization for this whole DarkMarket/Darkcoin thing stems back from around mid- to late April of this year and I'll lay it out there for you, but I want to clarify a few things first. That's about the time I found DarkCoin and really, as I say, "hit the ground running" back into the world crypto-currency. I was around in the beginning....back in the early days of Bitcoin (all in my blog)....although I'm a more recent arrival to this idea of hundreds of coins, jockeying for a slice of the pie.

I implore you, please help debate this! I'm interested in anyone's take on it. I'm not so sure how much I agree with the outlook anymore, although I've yet to find anyone really talking about it. In my opinion, I think these are valid issues.

When I put this idea together back in April, I thought it was solid gold. Mind you, I didn't know nearly as much as I do today about the hundreds of other coins out there. Up to that time, I knew and previously mined Bitcoin but had only heard of Litecoin. The research began....learning algorithms, scripts, reading forums, watching markets, testing miners, constantly surveying pools and blockchains, Wikipedia, what's this, what's that, how do I do this...........let me tell you, there was quite a lot to catch up on from the days of 1 coin. This is about the time I pieced all the scraps of Bitcoins I could find together......and went all-in on Darkcoin. From that point on, it was all things Darkcoin.

Oh, this would be a good time to insert my retort to the guy up there who was talkin' his nonsense about those triangles......I respect what it is that you do, I tried getting into it but it's just not my cup of tea. I prefer to invest my own personal stake as I see fit, not according to any magical triangle theorems. I'm sure it works for some people....but for me, I'll stick with true belief in the product I'm buying (or mining in this case).....or for more speculative ventures, through use of my own reasoning.....forecast a scenario that would push the price of a market sky high. These are pretty much my beliefs as it relates to crypto-currency in general. As I have diversified my portfolio, I have tried to include coins I truly believe in, long term. I'm also not opposed to earth-shattering breakouts......especially if they're already my coin of choice.

My arrival on the idea of DarkMarkets/Darkcoin came in great deal to this article: --which I can't link because I have to be on here another day. Now I'm not going to lie, I have fractured a law or two in my life, and indeed I had heard of these illegal darknet sites. I was never really involved with them directly, but I do know that they did work......and pretty effectively from what I hear. I can also recall from back in the day......when SilkRoad first hit the national news. I was already into Bitcoin, knew about Silk Road, and honestly.....at the time.....really couldn't believe "this" was just now making the news. Silk Road really wasn't much of a secret.....I mean they weren't exactly putting up billboards.....but it was pretty common knowledge in just about every Bitcoin related circle I traveled. Anyway, this news about Silk Road caused was one of the first HUGE price increases Bitcoin had seen to that time.

Whether you believe in the goods & services Silk Road offered is beside the point. It did help surge an infant Bitcoin through some potentially dangerous time. It could be argued that Bitcoin may not have ever become the behemoth it is today without Silk Road. Even today, people all over will look at me like I've got a penis growing out of my head when I tell them I'm into crypto-currency. You don't have to explain it to me.....I get it, but most people won't take the time to listen or truly understand why cryto is good. The learning curve is so high before you get to that "ah-ha" point.....swarms of people are unlikely to ever come flocking at once. Once you throw a niche in there like Silk Road was to Bitcoin, you suddenly give a large group of people, who would otherwise be unmotivated to learn or care about a Bitcoin, reason to start buying them up hand over fist.

I can understand Bitcoin wanting to distance itself from the DarkMarkets now, as it is the mainstream in the crypto-world. It made it. King, Chief, Head [email protected]' in Charge. I would guess investors in Bitcoin during the Silk Road breakout may not have wanted to distance themselves too far from something that was catapulting their investments skyward. I could hardly be considered an investor at the time but my coins were worth more and we (Bitcoiners) were getting some exposure. This may be a topic for another thread but I don't really see the Dark Markets as a force so terrible, they must be stopped. And for a coin like Darkcoin, this is the niche your coin was intended to fill. I don't really care if you intended it (no offense).

I am the son of a banker.....so I know exactly what it's like for someone to watch every dollar you spend. Yeah, he could see where, when, and on what every dollar in my account was spent on. It's not exactly an oppressive government.....but it makes me especially receptive to anonymous transaction currency. Although I still don't see such a vast need for it that swarms of people will decide to defy the learning curve and start buying into something they have no idea about. Who do people have to hide from? What are you trying to hide? Anonymity is a right, I agree.....but why is it suddenly such an issue that you're willing to adopt a new currency over it? I mean, when my dad was watching my transactions.....the only thing I cared about were the late night cash withdrawals of hundreds of dollars. Quite frankly, I didn't want him to see them because they were for things I shouldn't have been doing. Point being, I could care less about anonymous transactions......as long as the transactions aren't for anything that could potentially get me in trouble.

I'll try to finish this up. I personally hope Darkcoin makes its way to the darknet markets. Not so I can buy things there......so my coins get red hot. I not only hope they make it there.....I would love to see Darkcoin as the exclusive coin of the darkwebs. Don't just fill the niche for the drug and gun markets.....big picture.....the entire darkweb. I don't think I'd by any means consider the slogan: Darkcoin, for all your illegal desires. It would be lunacy to proclaim Darkcoin condones anything illegal.....but let's not be so quick to discourage the use of Darkcoin anywhere. Those markets start taking DRK......DRK will go up.....and it will gain exposure, much the way Bitcoin did. It was good enough for Bitcoin, why wouldn't it be even better for a coin that was engineered to be better than Bitcoin in that particular niche?
 

verdugo

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Jun 19, 2014
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I have been into bitcoin since 2012 if I remember correctly, they had just broken 4$ and you are right in my opinion that without silk road, like it or not, we would not be talking about bitcoin today. as the old saying goes, theres no such thing as bad publicity! From an investment perspective, I too hope that the darkmarkets adopt it as well as this is the only short term way I see darkcoin's price and popularity increase dramatically but on the flip side, once(if) it is adopted, it will be targeted by gov agencies and crushed fairly quickly. Personally, I too hope that silk road and the like do adopt it (especially since I do believe that blockchain taint analysis and such is becoming a strong tool that the us gov is learning to use effectively in the near future) but I do fear that if that does happen, darkcoins days will be numbered
 

derk

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Oh, this would be a good time to insert my retort to the guy up there who was talkin' his nonsense about those triangles......I respect what it is that you do, I tried getting into it but it's just not my cup of tea.
Just to be clear, although I do pay attention to these things, in my post above I am not promoting chart analysis!
I am simply proposing that this had a major impact on investors' decisions.
 
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DrGil

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Just to be clear, although I do pay attention to these things, in my post above I am not promoting chart analysis!
I am simply proposing that this had a major impact on investors' decisions.
I got ya yo. And I'm not dogging on the chart readers, if it works for you.....rock it. I'm wise enough to concede that buying and selling probably does produce repeatable patterns that could be used to capitalize on margins. I guess in my eye's, it's still human at some level. Reactions, fear, speculation....at some level, somewhere, there is a guy sitting in front of a computer screen deciding whether his life might be better, with or without any particular coin. I mean, I'm pretty sure that's what it boils down to. When I make a wrong move.....it'd be nice to have the out: "The triangle made me buy it.".......but it's a lot easier (for me) to say, "I may have made a bad move there."

While I believe chart reading, or more properly, interpreting, should probably be classified as a science......it's not like a hard science. (Yeah, I know I'm going to catch a little flak here. Hear me out.) Physics is a hard science. The laws and theorems aren't open to interpretation. In physics......it is what it is. If you don't like it, there really isn't a damn thing you can do about it. Physics doesn't care if the majority of people voted not to adhere to a specific law. That law of gravity, or atomic weight, or volume of liquid couldn't care less what the market sentiment is. Every single day, these principles of physics pack their lunch and head off to a busy day of doing exactly the same thing.......every single day of their lives, and yours, and your kids, and their kids. These phenomenon are called "facts". 100% undeniable evidence that no matter what is going on in the world, these little guys are going to show up for work, in exactly the same capacity as you left them the day before. They don't get tired, angry, scared, or nervous. People do. Which is why interpreting charts will never be an exact science (or I guess I should use my own terminology, hard science).

Being a self-proclaimed computer geek, I understand what it's like to be both good at, and passionate about something. If you're a chart reader and this is how you feel about your craft, I'm sorry if I've offended you in any way. It's not often a computer geek can laugh at anyone.....we're usually the one's getting laughed at. Although in this case I'll make an exception (ok, here come's the cheap shot....you knew it was coming). Your science is about as rock solid as a Cajun's bowel movement's. There is no definitive way to determine with pinpoint accuracy exactly how anything is going to happen. Which is in reality.....guessing. Educated guess or not......it's a guess. Which should slide your little science somewhere in-between Sociology and Chiropractor. And don't get too comfortable.......because you're about half a step away from becoming a full-on banker. ROFL. Sorry.... We don't get many chances for a cheap-shot.
 

fernando

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DrGil I don't agree at all with you about Darkcoin and darkmarkets. I don't know if I can convince you because you seem quite set in your ideas, but at least I'll state a few things.

Darkcoin was not created to be used in darkmarkets. In fact, its original name was XCoin and there was no Darksend. Some issues with that name led to change it. Soon it was discussed to change it again to avoid the associations that the dark prefix brings, but it was considered that a new change would be too confusing and Darkcoin was already quite well known. You can check everything in the bitcointalk thread and in some other threads here.

My belief is that mainstream economy is much bigger and profitable than niche ones like darkmarkets, but this kind of things can't be proved because there is no reliable data. You can't prove the other way either. Even if it were true that SilkRoad was pivotal in Bitcoin growth (again, impossible to know for sure, so no point in discussing it), we live in a different world now. Much more people understand and use cryptos today, Bitcoin has opened the trail. I too get crazy looks when talking to some people about cryptos, but I also get a lot of interest from others that have heard about Bitcoin before. There are many reasons to use Darkcoin over Bitcoin without the need of darkmarkets. Privacy would be the biggest and most obvious one, but also things like speed or even not wanting to deal with so many decimals (that one could change if the price grows a lot like we both hope!).

Finally, you have a couple facts wrong:
-Darksend has been fully functional for a few months now. The 10 DRK limit is a maximum, not a minimum
-Darkcoin devs have nothing to do with darkmarkets software. Maybe you are confusing them with Darkwallet devs? I don't know about darkmarket software specifically, but Darkwallet devs are very vocal about darkmarkets.